All posts in: Time’s up

Checking In On Peak Oil

Futurism, done well, is not trying to produce point predictions. Still, as I have written, there is a role for thinking about forecast accuracy. In that spirit, I noticed that the time frame has run out on more forecasts for peak oil. In 2012, for ...

On “Prediction Accuracy”

Journalists often write lazy articles compiling forecasts that have not come to pass, attributing them to futurists. Real futurists always respond, “Futurists don’t make predictions!” That is true: the goal of futurism is not to ...

Kirkpatrick’s erroneous forecast

Neoconservative Cold Warrior Jeane Kirkpatrick has died. She came to prominence on the basis of a forecast: that right-wing regimes could be supported because they can evolve into democracies, while communist countries never could. Despite the fact ...

Revisiting Iraq forecasts

Paul Krugman reviews some forecasts by people who got Iraq right: Former President George H. W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, explaining in 1998 why they didn’t go on to Baghdad in 1991: “Had we gone the invasion route, the United States ...