The CSM reports that English nationalism — identification with the nation of England rather than the larger United Kingdom — is growing, albeit on a small scale.
English nationalism responds to an anomaly:
England is essentially Europe’s largest stateless nation – 50 million people with no parliament and few national emblems. While much has been done to help minorities in Britain express their cultures, the English have largely felt awkward celebrating theirs.
As the Scots and Welsh have regained power within the UK, English interest in self-determination is growing:
A recent survey found that 23 percent of people wanted a separate parliament for England and 43 percent believed only English MPs should be allowed to vote on English issues in parliament.
English nationalism could serve as a secondary driver of the dissolution of the United Kingdom as a unitary state, to be replaced by more loosely associated nation-states within the European Union.
The International Crisis Group reports some good news from the Balkans about the successful Montenegrin referendum on separation from Serbia and thus independence:
Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can aspire to becoming a “boring” country moving toward integration with Europe.
The ICG has certain caveats:
But its opposition, and Belgrade, need to be persuaded not to renege on their commitments to the EU to accept the referendum result, lest this generate new uncertainties in the region as a Kosovo status decision approaches.
The upsetting results for the Serbs might create problems in neighboring Bosnia as well:
Some in nationalist circles in Serbia, along with Republika Srpska Premier Milorad Dodik, are indulging in loose talk about holding a similar referendum in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska as compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and – as with the opposition in Montenegro – it remains to be seen whether this is more than election year rhetoric.
Generally, though, the effects should be positive:
In the broader region, Montenegrin independence will probably lead to the rapid resolution of a fifteen-year old territorial dispute between Croatia and Serbia (Prevlaka peninsula), and increased regional cooperation with Croatia, Albania, Slovenia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia. Montenegrin independence makes it more difficult for the international community to deny Albanians a similar outcome in Kosovo.
The issue of self-determination for Pakistan’s Baluchistan is heating up again, Radio Free Europe reports.
Baluchis accuse the government of militaritizing the conflict, and some have turned to talking about independence rather than just autonomy. According to journalist Ahmed Rashid, “the rebellion has the potential of becoming even bigger than it currently is.”
The Pakistani government accuses India, Afghanistan, and Iran of backing Baluchi separatism — another potential point of conflict between Islamabad and those states. (A separate Baluchistan would be a beacon for the million or more Iranian Baluchis. If Iran is backing separatism, it would seem it is not very worried about unrest on its side of the border.)
The reports that American forces are already in Iran working with minorities sound like exaggerations or outright propaganda, but The Telegraph here reports that there is some restiveness, at least among the Kurds.
The grievances of Iran’s ethnic minorities are said to have deepened since the ultra-conservative Mr Ahmadinejad won power from Iran’s more Western-leaning, reformist government in last June’s elections. While his predecessors were more open to granting minority rights, he has re-imposed stronger central controls in line with strict Islamic laws.
Potential areas of trouble are numerous:
As well as the Kurds, Iran’s minorities include Azeris, whose homeland of Azerbaijan lies to the north-west, ethnic Baluchis, who straddle the east of Iran and Pakistan’s Baluchistan region, and Ah-wazi Arabs, who inhabit the south-west corner, near Iraq.
Azeris are also said to be growing more nationalistic, though this may be more about culture than separatism, as Azeris are “well-integrated into Iranian society.”
The underlying math is problematic for a centralized Iranian state: the CIA estimates that the country is only 51% Persian.
A former CIA analyst warns that the Pakistani regime’s efforts to assist the US “are stoking the fires of a potential civil war between Islamabad and the Pashtun tribes that dominate much of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.”
Pashtun tribal leaders have long dreamed of erasing the arbitrary, British-imposed border and uniting their tribes in a national entity called “Pashtunistan.” Their dream has been quiescent in recent decades…. Today, however, the tribals’ dream is being reinvigorated by Mr. Musharraf as he pursues U.S. demands in the border provinces.
Pakistan could end up reduced and weakened, he writes.
(Via Informed Comment)
Indonesian poltics are “increasingly dominated by fundamentalists” seeking to “purify the nation,” the Sunday Times reports.
The fundamentalists are trying to legislate strict rules on clothing and public affection. Local governments have already begun to imprison people for offenses such as praying in Bahasa Indonesia rather than Arabic, or arguing that non-Muslims can go to heaven.
This could strain relations between the Muslim majority and the roughly 30 million Indonesians who practice other faiths, as well as worsening the relationship between the central government and regions such as Papua and Bali. Murmurs of Balinesian separatism could grow louder.
Others suggest that this process cannot go too far, as Indonesia is “overwhelmingly moderate” — but it does not take a majority to restructure a society.