Self-determination
Jon Norris at Foreign Policy points out that Sudan is scheduled to self-destruct — probably — in two years.
In 2011, the African south of the country is supposed to vote on separation from the more Arab and Muslim north. “Almost every observer has concluded that if this referendum happens, the South will vote overwhelmingly for independence, sundering in half the largest country in Africa,” Norris writes.
The split could be bloody. Norris notes reports that the Sudanese government is likely arming proxy forces, including the Christian cultist Lord’s Resistance Army, possibly with the goal of halting the referendum or seizing territory from the southern regions.
And, suggests Norris, events in Darfur would suggest to Sudan that the consequences of misbehavior in the south are likely to be low.
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The New York Times reported today on tense relations between Russia and Ukraine, as “both sides resort to provocations and recriminations.”
It is the Crimean Peninsula, appended to Ukraine by Stalin but heavily populated by Russians and Crimean Tatars, “where the tensions are perhaps most in danger of bursting into open conflict,” though “both countries publicly avow that they do not want the bad feelings to spiral out of control,” Times reporter Clifford Levy notes.
The situation could worsen in next five months, as the January 2010 Ukrainian election “might cause Ukrainian candidates to respond more aggressively to Russia to show their independence,” Levy writes.
Crimea is “roughly 60 percent ethnic Russian and would prefer that the peninsula separate from Ukraine and be part of Russia” and Sevastopol, where Russia maintains a naval base, “has an even higher proportion of ethnic Russians.”
Levy writes:
Sergei P. Tsekov, a senior politician in Crimea who heads the main ethnic Russian communal organization, said he hoped that Russia would wholeheartedly endorse Crimean separatism just as it did the aspirations of South Ossetia and another Georgian enclave, Abkhazia.
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Iraq may still destabilize, and one of the potential faultlines became clearer two weeks ago, when the Iraqi Kurdish parliament passed a new constitution for the region, in defiance of the central government and American pressure.
The New York Times writes that the action suggests the level of mistrust between Kurdistan and the central government, and “raises the question of whether a peaceful resolution of disputes between the two is possible.” A Sunni Arab member of parliament commented that “It is a declaration of hostile intent and confrontation. Of course it will lead to escalation.”
The constitution defines Kurdistan as including not only the established provinces, but also several disputed areas, setting the stage for more clashes. Conditions are already tense enough that Kurdish and federal security forces have had several standoffs.
The result of a failure to resolves these issues could be armed conflict between Arab Iraq and the Kurds (rather than the more general fragmentation that has been more likely in the past). Though the Kurds have been attempting to build separate ties to the US, the United States would likely stand aside in such a confrontation, even if it meant disaster for the Kurds, rather than throw away the American relationship with Iraq.
The constitution may also not bode well for future Kurdish governance, as it reportedly places few checks on the power of the president of Kurdistan, potentially enabling authoritarian tendencies in the dominant Kurdish parties.
(Image courtesy Wikimedia Commons)
Speaking to the Washington Post, Rebiya Kadeer, an exiled Uighur leader, declined to be labeled a “separatist.”
“What my people want is what I want, and they want freedom,” she told the Post, which observed that she “speaks carefully around the question of full independence for Uighurs” — this is also the position of the World Uyghur Congress, though Uighur demonstrations sometimes have a more direct message.
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Resentment and hostility toward Han Chinese seem to be common among the largely Muslim, Turkic Uighurs, who make up a diminishing percentage of Xinjiang’s population as Han move in in growing numbers, with the encouragement of the Chinese government. Whether a majority of Uighurs favor independence is not known.
In any case, China is not going to willingly consider any kind of real autonomy for the Uighurs anytime soon, both on general principle and due to Xinjiang’s immense size and strategic location. With the Uighurs unable to compel any Chinese action, little is likely to change for years to come.
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Earlier this month Quebec adults were asked two versions of a question about more independence for the Canadian province. How the question was asked heavily influenced the results:
Q — “If a referendum on Quebec sovereignty were held today, would you vote yes or no to the following question? – ‘Do you agree that Quebec should become a country separate from Canada?’”
- Yes — 34%
- No — 54%
- Not sure — 13%
Q — “If a referendum on Quebec sovereignty were held today, would you vote yes or no to the following question? – ‘Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of a bill respecting the future of Quebec?’”
- Yes — 40%
- No — 41%
- Not sure — 19%
Even the confusingly worded second version does not get even a plurality of support, suggesting why the probability of independence for Quebec in the next couple of decades remains low.
Source: “Question Shapes Views on Sovereignty in Quebec,” Angus Reid, June 12, 2009.
The terrorist atrocities in Mumbai this week serve as another reminder of two fundamental issues for India:
- India’s future will always be imperiled as long as relations with Pakistan remain on a hair-trigger. The terrorist group that attacked the city may have no official ties to Pakistan, yet still managed to raise tensions between the two states. All India’s hopes could disappear in nuclear fire if each crisis could lead to war.
- The problem of Kashmir — a predominately Muslim area ruled by India, which stations hundreds of thousands of troops there — is also likely to bedevil India’s future. There are signs that the terrorists were motivated by the Kashmir problem, and Kashmir will continue to generate crises until India resolves the issue. It is also the most dangerous flashpoint for Indo-Pakistani relations.
Reports–such as this AP article–suggest that the Tibetan self-determination movement may be nearing a crossroads.
The reporter summarizes the feelings at a meeting of 600 Tibetan exile leaders thusly:
Many young leaders – some of whom have only seen their homeland from across the Himalayas in India – are pushing for a declaration of independence from China. However, much of the older guard, who witnessed firsthand China’s military might, are standing by the Dalai Lama’s path of compromise.
Younger factions have grown more dissatisfied with the Dalai Lama’s compromise approach, and more now advocate violence against Tibet’s Chinese rulers.
Such a strategy would be perilous.
- China has vastly more raw power than Tibetans can ever muster.
- The Chinese government and general populace are likely ready to use that power.
- China’s political culture is still in a stage that demonstrations of Tibetan dissatisfaction with Chinese rule–whether violent or nonviolent–are unlikely to meet with much sympathy, except from small groups of liberal Chinese.
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The Washington Post reports that the credit crisis is being used as an argument against independence for Scotland, with suggestions that Scotland would not have been able to weather the crisis on its own.
Practical factors come into play as well: with the bank bailout by the central government, “it has not been lost on Scots that the largest shareholder in Scotland’s two largest banks is now the British government.”
The pro-independence Scottish National Party, which currently governs Scotland, contents that Scottish membership in the EU would provide the kind of assistance now provided by the central government of the UK.
The article notes that only about 25-30% of Scots favor independence.
The October issue of Alaska Magazine covers the Alaska independence movement in all its gradations.
In “The Country of Alaska,” Rebecca Luczycki’s portrait suggests that serious secessionists are rare, and that even many members of the Alaska Independence Party (the state’s third-largest) are really just libertarians. The founder of the party may have said, “I’m an Alaskan, not an American,” but many Alaskan “nationalists” seem to want more state-level control and less “interference” from the federal government.
Alaskan independence is very low-probability, not least because of the culture of dependence that has developed. Luczycki quotes Sara Chambers, a member of the Juneau city assembly: “Alaskans are not necessarily dedicated to freedom, but have become dedicated to free stuff.”
