Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New World Order, offers some tips for a new US president in the October issue of Wired, in an article by Daniel Pink.
- The United States can avoid decline by “tightening trade and energy ties to the rest of the hemisphere, pursuing economic innovation at home, and establishing a ‘diplomatic-industrial complex.’”
- The US should create “an energy partnership with Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil,” reducing dependence on oil from the Middle East.
- The US should treat Mexico as the EU does Turkey, “integrating, elevating, and partnering with it.”
- Egypt is “ripe for revolt. We should make friends quickly with other power centers in the country, including the Muslim Brotherhood.”
- The US should offer Iranians a deal: oust President Ahmadinejad, and they will get “everything they want in terms of of Western investment in energy, freer trade, diplomatic recognition, and increased cultural and student exchanges.”
- Uzbekistan merits attention, as the most populous and industrialized country in Central Asia, and the only state that shares borders with all the other “stans.”
- “India will never rival China . . . It’s not a superpower.”
- China’s rise will not be hindered by “demands for such niceties as transparency or free expression,” as “the Chinese people have a preference for stability over another revolution.”
- Russia has more problems than potential: it is “in demographic free fall” and “Chinese immigration is blurring the border.”
Despite vigorous efforts to increase Venezuela’s “soft power,” Hugo Chavez does not appear to be succeeding, according to data released by Pew this week.
In 5 of 6 major Latin American nations, majorities have little or no confidence in Chavez as a leader. In Brazil and Peru, majorities have “no confidence at all” in him. Only in Argentina is opinion divided, with 40% of the population feeling somewhat positive about Chavez.
In short, the prospects for Chavez’s “Bolivaran Revolution” transforming the politics of Latin America remain poor.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its 2006 e-readiness rankings yesterday. The index is a measure of a country’s readiness for e-business, judged by Internet access, broadband penetration, innovation, information security, and other factors. More telling than the ranking is the country’s distance from a score of 10.
The ratings are a good indicator of general abilities in IT, and thus an important component of present and future competitiveness.
The top countries
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
1. Denmark — 9.00 (1)
2. US — 8.88 (2)
3. Switzerland — 8.81 (4)
4. Sweden — 8.74 (3)
5. UK — 8.64 (5)
6. Netherlands — 8.60 (8)
7. Finland — 8.55 (6)
8. Australia — 8.50 (10)
9. Canada — 8.37 (12)
10. Hong Kong — 8.36 (6)
11. Norway — 8.35 (9)
12. Germany — 8.34 (12)
13. Singapore — 8.24 (11)
14. New Zealand — 8.19 (16)
14. Austria — 8.19 (14)
16. Ireland — 8.09 (15)
17. Belgium — 7.99 (17)
18. South Korea — 7.90 (18)
19. France — 7.86 (19)
Other countries of interest
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
21. Japan — 7.77 (21)
22. Israel — 7.59 (20)
23. Taiwan — 7.51 (22)
25. Italy — 7.14 (24)
30. United Arab Emirates — 6.32 (X)
31. Chile — 6.19 (31)
35. South Africa — 5.74 (32)
37. Malaysia — 5.60 (35)
39. Mexico — 5.30 (36)
41. Brazil — 5.29 (38)
42. Argentina — 5.27 (39)
45. Turkey — 4.77 (43)
46. Saudi Arabia — 4.67 (46)
48. Venezuela — 4.47 (45)
49. Romania — 4.44 (47)
51. Colombia — 4.41 (48)
52. Russia — 4.30 (52)
53. India — 4.25 (49)
55. Egypt — 4.14 (53)
56. Philippines — 4.04 (51)
57. China — 4.02 (54)
60. Nigeria — 3.69 (58)
61. Ukraine — 3.62 (57)
62. Indonesia — 3.39 (60)
64. Kazakhstan — 3.22 (62)
65. Iran — 3.15 (59)
67. Pakistan — 3.03 (64)
Regional standouts in the developing world are Chile, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. The low scores of some countries, notably India, China, and Russia, disguise significant specialized capabilities in infotech.
At the direction of President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela is spending billions to bolster its political influence and image in Latin America and beyond, on everything from samba parades in Brazil to heating oil for Americans.
According to the NYT,
with the biggest oil reserves outside the Middle East, Mr. Chávez is more than an irritant. He is fast rising as the next Fidel Castro, a hero to the masses who is intent on opposing every move the United States makes.
He is aiding the current Castro too, providing Cuba oil at reduced rates.
This is all “to further his dream of unifying Latin America,” according to the article.
Of course, these aid projects can last only as long as oil prices are high.
And, while they can marginally increase the country’s (and Chavez’s) soft power, it is unclear what that soft power could be used for. Venezuela already has Latin American sympathy — and the oil still has to be sold to the United States.
The World Economic Forum has released its new report on Latin American competitiveness.
Twenty-one countries are evaluated on the basis of macroeconomy, institutions, infrastructure, health, education, market efficiency, tech readiness, “business sophistication, and innovation. The rankings say a lot about the prospects of these countries — and 20 of the 21 rank poorly.
Country (global rank out of 117 countries)
1. Chile (27)
2. Argentina (54)
3. Costa Rica (56)
4. Brazil (57)
5. Colombia (58)
6. Mexico (59)
7. El Salvador (60)
8. Jamaica (63)
9. Panama (65)
10. Trinidad and Tobago (66)
11. Uruguay (70)
12. Peru (77)
13. Venezuela (84)
14. Ecuador (87)
15. Dominican Rep. (91)
16. Guatemala (95)
17. Nicaragua (96)
18. Honduras (97)
19. Bolivia (101)
20. Paraguay (102)
21. Guyana (108)
Chile is highly competitive, surpassing 13 of the EU’s 25 members.
The rest of the region lags. Despite some improvements
Latin America still suffers from one of the most inequitable income distributions worldwide, social tensions and an increasing sense of reform fatigue. Moreover, the region seems to be losing ground as foreign direct investment and trade shares shift to other developing regions, notably Asia and Eastern Europe.
Still, Latin America had its highest growth since 1980 in 2005, and many structural factors are in better shape than in previous decades.
A useful introduction to current Venezuelan politics from Smithsonian. An oil-fueled social experiment is changing things.
In recent surveys by the Caracas market research firm Datos, a majority of Venezuelans said they had benefited from government spending on food, education and healthcare. In 2004, the average household income increased by more than 30 percent.
But the experiment’s sustainability is open to question. Said a pollster,
“If you manage populism with good controls and efficiency, you can last a long time. But so far, this is not what Chávez is doing. And if oil prices drop again, the whole revolution becomes a mirage.”