An NPR reporter in Cuba suggests that change — at least of a kind — is underway.
Writes NPR, “There are signs in Cuba that Fidel Castro’s power is truly waning, despite that many Cubans have a hard time believing that his rule is really over.”
The reporter’s findings suggest a “Fidelismo without Fidel” scenario, but with hints of “The China Option.”
Vicki Huddleston of Brookings recently wrote a piece entitled “Cuba 2010: Worse-Case Scenario Could Become Reality.”
Curiously, it is basically a “present-trends-continue” scenario, with most conditions improving at the margins but the communist system remaining in place, buoyed by good economic conditions and a new revenue stream from ethanol.
Though their probability varies, there are clearly worse scenarios, including heightened repression by Cuba’s government or by a right-wing successor regime, or even invasion by the US.
With Castro formally removing himself from leadership, Cuba moved further into its next stage, whatever that might be.
Future Atlas outlined 6 possibilities in 2006. They remain operative, and the “Fidelismo without Fidel” scenario retains the highest medium-term probability.
Map courtesy Central Intelligence Agency
Journalist Ann Louise Bardach spoke at the New America Foundation today about the situation in Cuba, touching on several drivers of Cuba’s future.
Of Cuba itself, she had this to say:
Of Cuban-Americans and US policy, she said:
Steve Clemons of New America added that more Republican legislators are loosening up on the Cuba issue.
Overall, Bardach’s views suggest the plausibility of the China Option scenario for Cuba’s future.
With Fidel Castro seriously ill, it is worth considering the diverse scenarios that could unfold for a post-Castro Cuba.
SCENARIOS
FIDELISMO WITHOUT FIDEL
Cuba’s current communist system persists.
Probability – Medium
Trajectory – Without Castro, would tend to transition toward the China Option or Normal Cuba scenarios.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
THE CHINA OPTION
The Communist Party takes the China route: abandoning socialism but maintaining authoritarian rule.
Probability – Medium-low
Trajectory – Would tend to transition to Normal Cuba scenario.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
NORMAL CUBA
Cuba becomes a normal Latin American democracy. The Communist Party transitions to one among many parties, and retains a substantial following.
Probability – Medium
Trajectory – Likely to persist, with slight danger of slipping into the Neo-Batista right-wing authoritarianism scenario or one of the left-wing authoritarian scenarios.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
NEO-BATISTA
Cuban-Americans achieve power and impose a right-wing dictatorship.
Probability – Very low
Trajectory – Would likely evolve toward a Normal Cuba scenario, but could revert via revolt to a Fidelismo scenario.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
COLLAPSE
Contending forces tear the government apart and prevent an organized transition, creating chaos and violence.
Probability – Low
Trajectory – Would gradually coalesce into Normal Cuba or one of the authoritarian scenarios.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
BAY OF PIGS II
The US launches a military invasion to hasten a transition of its liking. It is met with substantial resistance.
Probability – Low
Trajectory – Would likely result in an eventual compromise that evolved toward a Normal Cuba scenario. Less likely would be such sharp resistance that the US loses heart and retreated, leaving Cuba to the Fidelismo outcome.
Drivers:
Counterforces:
[Cuba’s future / Cuban scenarios / Cuba scenarios / future of Cuba]
Moises Naim suggests two ways to redirect US policy in Latin America and reengage with the region:
Of Cuba, Naim writes:
The first step toward draining the appeal of Chávezism and restoring the U.S.’s image in Latin America would be to unilaterally lift the embargo on Cuba. The U.S. embargo has never worked as a tool to weaken Castro. Instead it has provided him with a wonderful excuse to hide his failures and justify the island’s dire poverty and harsh political repression. The embargo is even less effective now that Cuba is so deeply intertwined economically and politically with Venezuela and other countries in the region. …. The U.S. embargo on Cuba has enormous political costs for the U.S. and no benefit other than pleasing a portion, but not all, of Cuban-American voters.
Engaging with Brazil would mean paying attention to the single most important country in the region. Engagement
would involve offering an attractive trade agreement that would grant freer access to the U.S. market for Brazilian steel, shoes, orange juice, ethanol and other products that currently face import barriers. The costs for the U.S. economy would be relatively minimal. For Brazil, such a deal would stimulate exports, drive investment and lift the economy. Even more important, such an approach would reward and support a country (and a government) that is providing a powerful counterexample to the populist policies that are gaining favor in the region.
Cuban dissident Oswaldo Jose Paya Sardinas offers a “program for change” whose elements outline a scenario for a moderate transition to a democratic Cuba:
We want to preserve the right to free health care and education, and to expand our rights to include freedom of religious education and freedom of expression. We do not want change if it comes at the cost of paying a ransom to those in power, allowing them to take control of the country’s resources, to define its values, to become millionaires and to leave the people of the country in distress. In Cuba, there will be no lynchings, no revenge, no exclusions. Those now in power will have the same rights as all citizens. There will be no uncontrolled privatizations, but there will be a guarantee for the right of all Cubans to a free economy, the right to have private enterprise and to trade freely. No one will be forced out of his home; the law will prohibit evictions. All Cubans in exile will regain their rights as Cuban citizens.
The plan is clearly an effort to preserve aspects of Cuban society that many Cubans value, and avoid the jarring transitions that many post-communist countries have gone through. It attempts to defy the reality that those in power in any society will attempt to continue in power, even if in a new guise, and also seeks to forestall a vindictive backlash, which may make such a plan unpopular with Cuban-Americans, whose leadership is still prone to extremism.
Cuba is about to begin drilling for oil in the Florida Straits, with the help of Indian and Chinese companies.
This could have two effects on Cuba: