Latin America
Pew reports that most Mexicans see life in the US as better than that in Mexico, and 33% of Mexicans would like to come to the US. Some 18% would do so even if it were illegal.
They identify these issues as “very big” problems in Mexico:
- crime — 81%
- the economy — 75%
- illegal drugs — 73%
- corruption — 68%
That is a lot of people interested in a life in the United States, given that Mexico has a population of 111 million, of whom 68 million are over 19.
- 33% = 22 million adults
- 18% = 12 million adults
The poll was of adults over 18 generally, while likely immigrants would be concentrated among young adults, but they would tend to create chain migration that can bring in children and older people.
(Image copyright FutureAtlas.com — usable with attribution and link)
Writing in the July Wired, Clive Thompson suggests why Cuba could prosper in the future:
- Educational levels are high for a developing country, with nearly 100% adult literacy; a third of adults have high school diplomas. One of five young Cubans is said to graduate from college.
- Cuba could be convenient for offshoring, as Cubans have skills that could be applied to programming, many have studied English, and the island is only an hour away from Miami by plane.
- Cuba has strengths in biotechnology and medicine, creating an opportunity for health tourism.
- Low use of pesticides makes much of Cuba’s agriculture “organic-ready.”
Thompson notes the need for Cuba to open up to enable this potential; an end to the American embargo would also be necessary.
Though Thompson compares Cuba to Ireland, the comparison is inexact: Ireland in the 1980s was much better educated and wealthier than Cuba is, and it was also English-speaking and capitalist.
In addition to the factors Thompson discusses, at least two others are present:
- Cuban Americans could be a source of large-scale investment capital.
- Cuba’s sugar industry and biotech skills could make it competitive in biofuels, though access to the American market would have to overcome the objections of the US sugar and ethanol lobbies.
The response to the removal of Honduras’ president by the country’s military illustrates an important change: democracy is now the norm in Latin America.
This is a stark change from the past, when coups were common and brutal human rights violations were the norm for even ostensibly democratic states. And the clear American response also shows how things have changed; the US was largely indifferent to military rule and human rights violations in the region well into the 1980s (with the exception of the Carter administration), but has since been fairly attentive to these issues (with some backsliding by the Bush administration in the 2000s).
In other words, a serous values change has transformed a large region, as part of a broader global trend.
(Image courtesy YamilGonzales, Flickr: attribution and ShareAlike license)
Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New World Order, offers some tips for a new US president in the October issue of Wired, in an article by Daniel Pink.
- The United States can avoid decline by “tightening trade and energy ties to the rest of the hemisphere, pursuing economic innovation at home, and establishing a ‘diplomatic-industrial complex.’”
- The US should create “an energy partnership with Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil,” reducing dependence on oil from the Middle East.
- The US should treat Mexico as the EU does Turkey, “integrating, elevating, and partnering with it.”
- Egypt is “ripe for revolt. We should make friends quickly with other power centers in the country, including the Muslim Brotherhood.”
- The US should offer Iranians a deal: oust President Ahmadinejad, and they will get “everything they want in terms of of Western investment in energy, freer trade, diplomatic recognition, and increased cultural and student exchanges.”
- Uzbekistan merits attention, as the most populous and industrialized country in Central Asia, and the only state that shares borders with all the other “stans.”
- “India will never rival China . . . It’s not a superpower.”
- China’s rise will not be hindered by “demands for such niceties as transparency or free expression,” as “the Chinese people have a preference for stability over another revolution.”
- Russia has more problems than potential: it is “in demographic free fall” and “Chinese immigration is blurring the border.”
An NPR reporter in Cuba suggests that change — at least of a kind — is underway.
Writes NPR, “There are signs in Cuba that Fidel Castro’s power is truly waning, despite that many Cubans have a hard time believing that his rule is really over.”
The reporter’s findings suggest a “Fidelismo without Fidel” scenario, but with hints of “The China Option.”
Angus Reid polling explains why Bolivia’s constitutional troubles are “more likely to split the nation in two” than to bring it peace.
As the indigenous Andean majority assert their newfound political power, the wealthier, more Hispanic lowland areas such as Santa Cruz are growing restive, and there is talk of separation. Angus Reid reports that “General Luis Trigo Antelo, the Bolivian Armed Forces’ commander in chief, has warned Santa Cruz and other departments seeking to call similar referendums on autonomy that the army will ‘not allow separatism.’”
The article concludes with this warning: “the fragile stability could break in the following months, as the stand-off between the rich and poor departments heightens the possibility of military action.”
Image: Mabel Flores (Flickr)
Vicki Huddleston of Brookings recently wrote a piece entitled “Cuba 2010: Worse-Case Scenario Could Become Reality.”
Curiously, it is basically a “present-trends-continue” scenario, with most conditions improving at the margins but the communist system remaining in place, buoyed by good economic conditions and a new revenue stream from ethanol.
Though their probability varies, there are clearly worse scenarios, including heightened repression by Cuba’s government or by a right-wing successor regime, or even invasion by the US.
With Castro formally removing himself from leadership, Cuba moved further into its next stage, whatever that might be.
Future Atlas outlined 6 possibilities in 2006. They remain operative, and the “Fidelismo without Fidel” scenario retains the highest medium-term probability.
Map courtesy Central Intelligence Agency
Despite vigorous efforts to increase Venezuela’s “soft power,” Hugo Chavez does not appear to be succeeding, according to data released by Pew this week.
In 5 of 6 major Latin American nations, majorities have little or no confidence in Chavez as a leader. In Brazil and Peru, majorities have “no confidence at all” in him. Only in Argentina is opinion divided, with 40% of the population feeling somewhat positive about Chavez.
In short, the prospects for Chavez’s “Bolivaran Revolution” transforming the politics of Latin America remain poor.
A recent report by the US Government Accountability Office suggests why devolution into a narcostate controlled by drug lords must be counted among the possible scenarios for Mexico’s future.
As reported in the Washington Post:
- Mexico is now the principal conduit for drugs into the US.
- Mexican drug cartels now “bring in as much as $23 billion a year in revenue.”
- “Mexican drug cartels generate more revenue than at least 40 percent of Fortune 500 companies, and the U.S. government’s highest estimate of cartel revenue tops that of Merck, Deere and Halliburton.”
- “A climate of ‘impunity’” enables the cartels to prosper.
- In some Mexican states cartels are so influential that the government rarely attempts counter-narcotics action there.
Still, the government is not pervasively compromised: it continues to extradite major traffickers to the US, and nearly a 1,000 federal law enforcement officers have been fired since 2000. Overall, the chance of a full-fledged takeover appears low.