Russian-Ukrainian tensions are building. “Now, for the first time in years, the word ‘war’ is being used here, and it’s not dismissed as impossible,” Ukrainian analyst Valeriy Chaly told the Washington Post.
This is driven by specific issues, such as the Crimean issue, and by the larger Russian skepticism that Ukraine is a permanent, independent state.
Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, told the Post that the debate in Moscow “is between moderates who want to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and ensure that it continues delivering Russian gas, and officials calling for a proactive strategy aimed at ’soft dominance’ over the country.”
Either path could lead to greater instability, amongst Ukraine’s divided citizenry, and between the two countries.
The New York Times reported today on tense relations between Russia and Ukraine, as “both sides resort to provocations and recriminations.”
It is the Crimean Peninsula, appended to Ukraine by Stalin but heavily populated by Russians and Crimean Tatars, “where the tensions are perhaps most in danger of bursting into open conflict,” though “both countries publicly avow that they do not want the bad feelings to spiral out of control,” Times reporter Clifford Levy notes.
The situation could worsen in next five months, as the January 2010 Ukrainian election “might cause Ukrainian candidates to respond more aggressively to Russia to show their independence,” Levy writes.
Crimea is “roughly 60 percent ethnic Russian and would prefer that the peninsula separate from Ukraine and be part of Russia” and Sevastopol, where Russia maintains a naval base, “has an even higher proportion of ethnic Russians.”
Levy writes:
Sergei P. Tsekov, a senior politician in Crimea who heads the main ethnic Russian communal organization, said he hoped that Russia would wholeheartedly endorse Crimean separatism just as it did the aspirations of South Ossetia and another Georgian enclave, Abkhazia.
(Map copyright FutureAtlas.com — usable with attribution and link)
In a recent poll, Ukrainians expressed fears for the stability of their country as a result of current political crises.
People were asked “Which consequences of the current political conflict are you afraid of the most?” With more than one answer allowed, responses included:
- Violence and disorder — 57.0%
- Anarchy — 44.4%
- Division of Ukraine into separate states — 22.6%
- Dictatorship — 21.9%
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its 2006 e-readiness rankings yesterday. The index is a measure of a country’s readiness for e-business, judged by Internet access, broadband penetration, innovation, information security, and other factors. More telling than the ranking is the country’s distance from a score of 10.
The ratings are a good indicator of general abilities in IT, and thus an important component of present and future competitiveness.
The top countries
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
1. Denmark — 9.00 (1)
2. US — 8.88 (2)
3. Switzerland — 8.81 (4)
4. Sweden — 8.74 (3)
5. UK — 8.64 (5)
6. Netherlands — 8.60 (8)
7. Finland — 8.55 (6)
8. Australia — 8.50 (10)
9. Canada — 8.37 (12)
10. Hong Kong — 8.36 (6)
11. Norway — 8.35 (9)
12. Germany — 8.34 (12)
13. Singapore — 8.24 (11)
14. New Zealand — 8.19 (16)
14. Austria — 8.19 (14)
16. Ireland — 8.09 (15)
17. Belgium — 7.99 (17)
18. South Korea — 7.90 (18)
19. France — 7.86 (19)
Other countries of interest
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
21. Japan — 7.77 (21)
22. Israel — 7.59 (20)
23. Taiwan — 7.51 (22)
25. Italy — 7.14 (24)
30. United Arab Emirates — 6.32 (X)
31. Chile — 6.19 (31)
35. South Africa — 5.74 (32)
37. Malaysia — 5.60 (35)
39. Mexico — 5.30 (36)
41. Brazil — 5.29 (38)
42. Argentina — 5.27 (39)
45. Turkey — 4.77 (43)
46. Saudi Arabia — 4.67 (46)
48. Venezuela — 4.47 (45)
49. Romania — 4.44 (47)
51. Colombia — 4.41 (48)
52. Russia — 4.30 (52)
53. India — 4.25 (49)
55. Egypt — 4.14 (53)
56. Philippines — 4.04 (51)
57. China — 4.02 (54)
60. Nigeria — 3.69 (58)
61. Ukraine — 3.62 (57)
62. Indonesia — 3.39 (60)
64. Kazakhstan — 3.22 (62)
65. Iran — 3.15 (59)
67. Pakistan — 3.03 (64)
Regional standouts in the developing world are Chile, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. The low scores of some countries, notably India, China, and Russia, disguise significant specialized capabilities in infotech.
Ukraine’s foreign minister has declared his intention that his nation be part of the EU by 2015.
This is extremely ambitious, and ultimately improbable, due to Ukraine’s size, poverty, corruption, and instability.
Future Atlas probability estimate:
