Time Magazine has done a slideshow of 20 apocalyptic visions on film.
Charted by plausibility and likelihood, they come out like this:
- Plausibility — The plausibility that this kind of event would unfold in this way.
- Likelihood — The likelihood that this kind of event will happen.
There are three broad categories in this list worth heeding:
- The likely — We are already well on our way to aspects of “The Inconvenient Truth.”
- The plausible accidents — “Children of Men,” “28 Days Later,” and some of the other bio-disaster movies are disturbingly plausible, even if the exact circumstances are unlikely. Our ubiquitous chemical experiments on ourselves and our growing biotech capabilities mean that we could simply stumble into one of these apocalypses, with no one intending such an outcome.
- Low likelihood but inevitable — Asteroid disasters are unlikely to happen in any short span of time, but inevitable in the long run, unless we do something about them.
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Image usable with attribution and link to FutureAtlas.com/blog
National Geographic suggests a discontinuity for Italy: there is a significant chance of a giant eruption by Vesuvius, the volcano in southern Italy that destroyed Roman Pompeii.
The volcano could destroy much of Naples and the surrounding area, endangering the lives of over a million people. Evacuation plans are rudimentary, according to the magazine.
Volcano image copyright Tom Pfeiffer (www.VolcanoDiscovery.com), used with permission
John Robb at Global Guerrillas argues that a US attack on Iran could have far-reaching consequences, in three waves:
- Instability intensifies in Iraq and the Persian Gulf, and oil prices spike.
- American targets are hit by terrorist attacks around the world. US forces in Iraq are forced to withdraw. The US falls into political crisis. “Radical reductions” in global economic activity occur.
- “A gulf monarchy falls. Successful terrorist attacks on oil production systems have deepened the global energy crisis …. The global economy goes into a severe and prolonged contraction. The worst finally happens: China’s export oriented economy collapses,” and the country fragments.
Analysis
- This is virtually certain as an outcome of US attack
- The scope and effect of terrorist attacks are uncertain. Withdrawal from Iraq would probably be accelerated, with negative consequences, including a strengthening of Iranian influence in Iraq (at least temporarily). The effects on oil supplies could be severe, as Iran has at least the power to disrupt the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, both the US and Iran would face mounting pressure to get the oil flowing again, and might work out a modus vivendi that enabled this. However, if the conflict escalates and the US appears bent on destroying the Iranian regime, Iran would have no reason for restraint.
- Severe economic consequences depend on the scope and duration of the disruption. The causal ties to the fall of a Gulf monarchy and the fragmentation of China are not at all certain.