Taiwanese voters yesterday backed the opposition, effectively retreating from the more stridently pro-independence ruling party.
This may help reduce the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, a war that could easily draw in the United States.
At the same time, Taiwanese are not ready to merge with China: polling finds that 63% consider the island sovereign and independent, 31% say its status is undetermined, and only 5% agree with China’s position that it is part of the mainland.
Foreign Policy offers the odds on six new states achieving independence:
1. Kosovo
Odds — “strong”: driven by US and EU support, it has a good shot at full independence from Serbia
2. South Sudan
Odds — “not great”: a 2011 “referendum will probably happen; and it will probably come out in favor of independence; and Khartoum will almost certainly find a way around the results.”
3. Somaliland
Odds — “very good”: effectively independent from Somalia since 1991, it already has its own government, army, and currency; international organizations will attend to the disastrous state of the rest of Somalia first, however
4. Iraqi Kurdistan
Odds — “fair”: Turkey’s strong opposition may be overruled by facts on the ground if Iraq disintegrates
5. Palestine
Odds — “good”: “details” in the way of a two-state solution will eventually overcome the objections of “the extreme radical wings” on both sides
6. Taiwan
Odds — “poor”: China is getting stronger and stronger, and Taiwan “will accept autonomous status” under China
A new poll illustrates the challenge of reconciling the Taiwanese and Chinese views of the island.
Three-fourths of Taiwanese (76.1%) say that Taiwan’s sovereignty belongs solely to the people of the island, while only 15% essentially agree with China’s position that sovereignty is held by both Taiwan and the mainland.
Given that China explicitly rejects Taiwan’s right to self-determination, the continuing threat of future conflict is plain.