Writing in Foreign Policy, Paul Quinn-Judge outlines a scenario in which “the fighters of the Caucasus Emirate link up with their jihadi allies in Central Asia, turning much of the southern rim of the former Soviet Union into a zone of low-intensity warfare.”
He writes that “The absolute worst-case scenario — a gradual linking-up of insurgents in Central Asia with the North Caucasus’ young Islamist fighters — might be remote, but it is now possible. Such a link-up would require at least three factors.”
- “Russia’s policy of blind brutality in the North Caucasus would have to continue, ensuring a steady stream of recruits to the Islamist cause.”
- “The Taliban would have to consolidate along Afghanistan’s frontiers with Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, or Tajikistan, turning the borderlands into safe havens and creating a series of conduits allowing fighters to move from Afghanistan into Central Asia and beyond.”
- “Central Asian jihadists from countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, or Uzbekistan would have to emerge as a fighting force large enough to exert serious regional pressure.”
As to their likelihood, Quinn-Judge suggests that
- “The first is already happening.”
- “The second is a matter of time.”
- “The third cannot be ruled out.”
Parag Khanna, author of The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New World Order, offers some tips for a new US president in the October issue of Wired, in an article by Daniel Pink.
- The United States can avoid decline by “tightening trade and energy ties to the rest of the hemisphere, pursuing economic innovation at home, and establishing a ‘diplomatic-industrial complex.’”
- The US should create “an energy partnership with Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil,” reducing dependence on oil from the Middle East.
- The US should treat Mexico as the EU does Turkey, “integrating, elevating, and partnering with it.”
- Egypt is “ripe for revolt. We should make friends quickly with other power centers in the country, including the Muslim Brotherhood.”
- The US should offer Iranians a deal: oust President Ahmadinejad, and they will get “everything they want in terms of of Western investment in energy, freer trade, diplomatic recognition, and increased cultural and student exchanges.”
- Uzbekistan merits attention, as the most populous and industrialized country in Central Asia, and the only state that shares borders with all the other “stans.”
- “India will never rival China . . . It’s not a superpower.”
- China’s rise will not be hindered by “demands for such niceties as transparency or free expression,” as “the Chinese people have a preference for stability over another revolution.”
- Russia has more problems than potential: it is “in demographic free fall” and “Chinese immigration is blurring the border.”
In a new report on the Central Asian country, the International Crisis Group offers these forecasts for Uzbekistan:
- “While 69-year-old President Islom Karimov shows no signs of relinquishing power, despite the end of his legal term of office more than half a year ago, his eventual departure may lead to a violent power struggle.”
- “Little can be done presently to influence Tashkent but it is important to … assist the country’s neighbours build their capacity to cope with the instability that is likely to develop when Karimov goes.”
- “There are reasons to be concerned that Karimov’s departure may lead to serious instability, with potentially grave consequences for the region as a whole.”
- “There is no clear evidence the [radical Islamist group] IMU poses a direct threat to it. However, if the regime continues its repressive policies, support for radicalism may well grow.”
- Regarding claims of an Islamic radical threat, “if the regime continues to crush internal dissent, eviscerate civil society, silence the independent media and smother religious institutions, the danger that they could become a self-fulfilling prophecy will grow.”
In the Financial Times, the International Crisis Group warns:
Diplomatic pressure may, however, be too late to prevent upheaval. As with other brutal yet brittle regimes facing an increasingly hostile population with less and less to lose, its end is as inevitable as it will be turbulent. But the international community can try to moderate any future breakdown. It is in its interest to do so: a complete collapse of Uzbekistan would put at risk the world’s huge investment in neighbouring Afghanistan, and a failed state in the heart of Asia would be a godsend to drug traffickers and religious extremists.
Others have made similar assessments. Uzbekistan is ranked 22nd in the Failed States Index, barely avoiding the highest danger category.
Corruption is an underlying factor: Transparency International rankings put it near the bottom, at the 137th slot, right next to the Congo.