As Russia plans to drop paratroopers into the Arctic as part of an exercise, Canada’s Defence Minister said last week that “We’re going to protect our sovereign territory and we’re always to meet any challenge to that territorial sovereignty.”
The Canadian Press article by Elizabeth Macmillan offered this context:
- “Many countries have beefed up their military presence in the Arctic.”
- “Russia, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Norway are increasing Arctic forces or increasing training for existing forces.”
- “International experts say the military buildup indicates that nations with territory in the resource-rich Arctic believe that armed conflict in the high north is a very real possibility.”
There is certainly a “very real possibility,” but that does not equal a high probability; the Arctic is surrounded by countries with a relatively low likelihood of fighting each other. Still, several of the more likely scenarios for future wars involving Canada take place in the Arctic.
(Image courtesy madmack66, Flickr)
New research suggests that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer decades before previous models have indicated.
A team of scientists now says this could come as early as 2013, based on patterns up to 2004. A possible harbinger: 2007’s summer ice cover was the smallest “in modern times.”
Other researchers push the date back, but some have begun to say “that 2030 is not an unreasonable date.”
Reduced or absent ice would speed up debates over Arctic resources, and make it more likely that Canada will face confrontations with rivals for oil and sea lanes.
(Via Arlington Institute; image: NASA)
Canadian forces are holding another exercise in the Arctic, as part of the effort to gear up for potential operations there.
The operation’s goal was “to demonstrate and develop Canada’s ability to operate in the extreme Arctic,” according to a soldier.
The region should grow in importance if the Arctic continues to thaw, opening up resources for exploitation.
Der Spiegel outlines some of the consequences of a warmer Arctic, including competition for energy resources and potential tensions over sea routes.
The Arctic is one of one of the few issues that could put Canada in real conflict with other states. Canada and the US may bicker over the issues, but there is a remote chance of armed confrontation with Russia in coming decades.