Africa
The WP reports that fundamentalists are edging out the moderates for control of the Islamic militias.
The first hints of change came when militia members forced the closure, in some neighborhoods, of cinemas showing the World Cup and films they deemed too sexually explicit. Some young women opted for more conservative head coverings, some young men for shorter hair.
Restraining mechanisms might come into play:
Some Somalis hold out hope that the same loose coalition of businessmen, activists and clan elders that helped drive out the warlords will soon turn against the militias as power breeds brashness. Ali Iman Sharmarke, a businessman and radio journalist in Mogadishu, said he believed the Islamic militias would lose power if they grew too strict in their interpretation of religious law. “People will hate them as they hated the warlords,” Sharmarke said from Nairobi. “The moderates will not fly with bin Laden.”
Overall, the likelihood of the “Taliban on the Horn” scenario prevailing has risen, and this also ups the probability of future war between Somalia and Ethiopia.
After 15 years without a central government, Somalia is showing signs of movement. It is not clear where it is going, however.
Two new forces are at work: a weak internationally-supported transitional government has been formed, and last week Islamic militias seized the capital, driving out warlords apparently backed by the US.
Several possible scenarios could arise:
1. Continued chaos
No group predominates, and the Islamic militias and new government simply become additional factions in the mix.
Behind this scenario is something basic to the Somali character. As an International Crisis Group analyst put it in the WP, “The Somali allegiance to any authority is as fickle as it gets. This is very tricky terrain.”
2. Taliban on the Horn
The Islamic militias could seize control, and institute Islamic totalitarianism. They also prove willing to harbor al-Qaeda members, offering a rare sanctuary for the group.
There are signs that this is becoming more plausible:
Moderates among the supporters of the Islamic militias acknowledge a rising extremism within the country. More women than before cover their faces rather than just their hair. Strict Islamic justice is popular. City leaders warn that without massive and rapid rebuilding, anti-Western forces such as al-Qaeda are certain to grow in their appeal.
There also was a palpable unease about the plans of the Islamic militias, which are by all accounts a fractured group split between moderates and extremists. The militias, the residents said, attempted to shut down a company that dubbed Indian movies into Somali, apparently because they were regarded as too risque.
It may be this scenario that caused the US to support the Islamists’ warlord enemies, possibly making future hostility more likely.
3. Islamic peace
Islamic forces could take over the country and prove relatively competent administrators, avoiding Taliban-like excesses.
Ignoring the transitional government has dangers, however as it
is supported by Somalia’s neighbors, the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, so opposing it could mean regional and international isolation and possibly crippling sanctions for any administration the Islamic forces try to build.
4. A peace of unity
The transitional government, the Islamic militias, and others could find sufficient common ground to form a real national government — leaving aside, for the moment, the quasi-independent regions of Puntland and Somaliland in the north.
This is currrently the stated intention of the militias.
The Ford Foundation is attempting to address Africa’s preeminent problem, governance.
As reported by the NYT, it is funding a new Group, Trust Africa, that will support “an expanding network of nonprofit groups across the continent that seek to hold governments accountable.”
Thomas O. Melia, deputy director of Freedom House, [...] said efforts like those of Trust Africa represent the next frontier in deepening democracy in Africa and elsewhere. “What has been missing, even in places establishing electoral democracy, is independent voices — think tanks, nongovernmental organizations, university centers — able to monitor government performance.”
The Senegal-based group will also seek support from African emigrants abroad, hoping that their interest in their homelands will translate to engagement in pan-African issues.
Rebel factions are fighting each other in Darfur, and using some of the same tactics as Sudanese government forces, displacing and killing civilians.
The tactics of the rebels have grown so similar to those of their enemies that an attack on this dusty village on April 19 bore all the marks of the brutal assault that first forced its people to flee their homes three years ago. Soldiers in uniform, backed by men toting machine guns on camels, flooded the village, burning huts, shooting, looting and raping.
This is another piece of evidence that any intervention in Darfur would not be easy or quick.
- An international force will have no real partners in either the government or the rebels.
- For the foreseeable future, there will be no one to hand off to. Darfur under either Sudan’s central government or rebel groups would be subject at any time to a return to brutality, and rule by either is unlikely to be competent or gentle. The situation will be much more dire than in Bosnia or Kosovo, and those have already required international supervision for a decade.
Ultimately, real intervention in Darfur means long-term intervention. Anything short of another UN protectorate seems likely to demonstrate that the international community was never really serious about the situation.
Foreign policy and the Fund for Peace have released their annual Failed States Index, a valuable tool for tracking potential instability.
Foreign Policy explains:
The category of “failed states” has become part of the strategic vernacular, and it has many definitions. For the purposes of this index, a failing state is one in which the government does not have effective control of its territory, is not perceived as legitimate by a significant portion of its population, does not provide domestic security or basic public services to its citizens, and lacks a monopoly on the use of force. A failing state may experience active violence or simply be vulnerable to violence. The great majority of the states listed in the index are not presently failed states. The index measures vulnerability to violent internal conflict. It is an index of country risk, not of countries that have already failed.
The 20 most endangered states are concentrated in Africa, and include many of the least-governed countries. Ranked from most in danger downwards, they are:
1. Sudan
2. Congo, Dem. Rep. of the
3. Ivory Coast
4. Iraq
5. Zimbabwe
6. Chad
6. Somalia
8. Haiti
9. Pakistan
10. Afghanistan
11. Guinea
11. Liberia
13. Central African Republic
14. North Korea
15. Burundi
16. Yemen
17. Sierra Leone
18. Burma
19. Bangladesh
20. Nepal
The status of all 148 rankings is mapped here.
Instability in Pakistan is potentially disastrous: it could be the first nuclear-armed state to fail, and some of the parties that might get hold of the country’s nuclear weapons have links to Islamic extremist groups.
Number 31 on the list is Egypt, a lynchpin state of the Middle East, and right behind it at 32 is Indonesia, one of the largest countries in the world.
The Economist Intelligence Unit released its 2006 e-readiness rankings yesterday. The index is a measure of a country’s readiness for e-business, judged by Internet access, broadband penetration, innovation, information security, and other factors. More telling than the ranking is the country’s distance from a score of 10.
The ratings are a good indicator of general abilities in IT, and thus an important component of present and future competitiveness.
The top countries
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
1. Denmark — 9.00 (1)
2. US — 8.88 (2)
3. Switzerland — 8.81 (4)
4. Sweden — 8.74 (3)
5. UK — 8.64 (5)
6. Netherlands — 8.60 (8)
7. Finland — 8.55 (6)
8. Australia — 8.50 (10)
9. Canada — 8.37 (12)
10. Hong Kong — 8.36 (6)
11. Norway — 8.35 (9)
12. Germany — 8.34 (12)
13. Singapore — 8.24 (11)
14. New Zealand — 8.19 (16)
14. Austria — 8.19 (14)
16. Ireland — 8.09 (15)
17. Belgium — 7.99 (17)
18. South Korea — 7.90 (18)
19. France — 7.86 (19)
Other countries of interest
Rank. Country — score out of 10 (2005 rank)
21. Japan — 7.77 (21)
22. Israel — 7.59 (20)
23. Taiwan — 7.51 (22)
25. Italy — 7.14 (24)
30. United Arab Emirates — 6.32 (X)
31. Chile — 6.19 (31)
35. South Africa — 5.74 (32)
37. Malaysia — 5.60 (35)
39. Mexico — 5.30 (36)
41. Brazil — 5.29 (38)
42. Argentina — 5.27 (39)
45. Turkey — 4.77 (43)
46. Saudi Arabia — 4.67 (46)
48. Venezuela — 4.47 (45)
49. Romania — 4.44 (47)
51. Colombia — 4.41 (48)
52. Russia — 4.30 (52)
53. India — 4.25 (49)
55. Egypt — 4.14 (53)
56. Philippines — 4.04 (51)
57. China — 4.02 (54)
60. Nigeria — 3.69 (58)
61. Ukraine — 3.62 (57)
62. Indonesia — 3.39 (60)
64. Kazakhstan — 3.22 (62)
65. Iran — 3.15 (59)
67. Pakistan — 3.03 (64)
Regional standouts in the developing world are Chile, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. The low scores of some countries, notably India, China, and Russia, disguise significant specialized capabilities in infotech.
Impunity for Africa’s leaders shows signs of ending, suggests the CSM, citing the arrest of former Liberian president Charles Taylor and the corruption trial of the ex-president of Zambia.
Efforts to hold African leaders to account are the result of both external pressure and internal African initiatives.
Poor governance is the single largest obstacle to African peace and development. A remark by a citizen of the Congo a couple of years ago can be applied across the continent:
“The most sorrowful thing I have to live with is that we are incapable of coming up with an elite that can run things with Congolese interests in mind.” — Congolese in Blaine Harden, “The Dirt in the New Machine,” New York Times, August 12, 2001.
These are only the first signs of what would have to be a protracted process.
(The CSM article also suggests that the US role in Taylor’s capture “implicitly binds the US to helping keep the peace in Liberia, should the trial of the still-popular” leader cause instability.)
The Washington Post reports that US warships opened fire on suspected pirates in international waters off the coast of Somalia. A US naval officer notes that waters around Somalia ‘are infested with pirates, seaborne armed robbers who board any boat or ship they can approach and rob the crew at gunpoint.’
Somalia is the least-governed country on the planet. That it is harboring pirates suggests why these holes in international order can matter. It is also thought to be a potential al Qaeda refuge, and is prime breeding ground for diseases such as avian flu, as there is no healthcare system in place.
It would be ripe for the kind of international trusteeship applied in Bosnia and Kosovo, but is so disordered and violent that it would take more will to enforce such an arrangement than international actors have.
The South African army is planning for its medium-term future, with attention to distinctly African issues, from dealing with “superstition” to fighting child soldiers and mercenaries.