Archive for May, 2010



Published May 21st, 2010 by Future Atlas

Confucianism as Chinese Soft Power

Confucius_IvanWalsh_FlickrThe Washington Post reports that Confucianism is enjoying a revival in China, propelled both by state promotion and popular enthusiasm.

The Party, Andrew Higgins suggests, sees the philosophy as a counter to Westernization, but it is not without danger to existing power structures, as it requires rulers to be virtuous and benevolent. Still, Confucianism could fill a philosophical vacuum that the last 40 years has left in China, and provide a map for changing relationships between the government and the people.

It could also be a means that China enhances it now-weak soft power, which currently is based on little more than pragmatic utility: development that can appeal to the masses, and legitimized authoritarianism which many elites might like to emulate.

A successful, Confucian China would have real ideas to offer to much of the developing world. Large portions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America would benefit from a Confucian social contract, in which elites have strong obligations to the populace. Even without Western democracy, that would be vastly different approach from the predatory practices of many states today.

Domestically, the relationship of China’s rulers and ruled will have to evolve as well. A Chinese executive in this article suggests why: “For the past 30 years, China has constantly stressed the economy, not culture, philosophy, and reflection,” he said. “But after you reach a certain economic level, you can start to think.”

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Image of Confucius courtesy Ivan Walsh (Flickr)

Published May 8th, 2010 by Future Atlas

Iron Man and Real Battle Suits

Iron ManThe powered armored battlesuit is a staple of science fiction, and is getting increasing attention from real militaries. They are the future of warfare in Friedman’s The Next 100 Years. But how close are they to reality? The science fiction site Io9 has broken down the capabilities of the battlesuit in “Iron Man,” and how much it would cost to replicate (sort of) such a suit. Their breakdown:

  • Exoskeleton — $10 million
  • Head-up display — $54 million
  • Portable power source — $36 million
  • Jet packs — $400,000
  • Wearable computers — $20,000
  • TOTAL: $100 million

Io9 correctly notes that this is roughly the cost of an F35 fighter plane. Given that such a suit has capabilities much greater than such a fighter plane, why aren’t we making them? Because we can’t.

  • Power: We don’t have anything that can generate anything like the output of Iron Man’s power pack, so the suit would be far weaker than the movie version.
  • Flight: Because of the power problem, a flying suit could not fly long or far.
  • Armor: Today’s exoskeletons are not armored. Even if we could build a powerful suit, it could not stand up against even small-arms fire, much less cannons and missiles. And the more we armor present-day exoskeletons, the slower and clumsier they’d be.

On the positive side, one could build a highly capable head-up display for a fraction of $54 million, so the battlesuit wearer would be able to see which insurgent with a $200 AK-47 knockoff was going to take him down.

The power and armor problems are not insurmountable, but a battlesuit that is fast, agile, powerful, and armored still seems to be decades away.

(Image courtesy BobbyProm, Flickr)