Published October 19th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Paths for China
Zachary Karabell, author of Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’s Prosperity Depends on It, spoke at New America Foundation this afternoon.
In discussing the deep mutual dependence of the US and Chinese economies, he suggested that two pathways are likely:
- China and the US might be like future EU members at mid-century, in proto-partnership, though no one is acting with that intention.
- China might be playing the role of the US in its relationship to the UK in early-mid 20th century, with the US fighting irrelevant fights (Iraq, Afghanistan) while China grows in power; it was ultimately the US that supplanted Britain, not Germany.
Other ideas of interest:
- It is not clear if global resources –- steel and oil, for instance –- could even support a much more prosperous China. Chinese demand is likely to drive up oil, copper, etc. prices in a few years.
- The chances are “almost nil” that China will follow Japan’s path, falling into stagnation. Japan was never as open to global commerce than China is; India is not as open as China either.
- China may be pleased with the American obsession with Iran, because that is something that it hardly cares about at all — it is always great to have one’s adversaries expending their energies at something that doesn’t matter to you.
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kurt9 Says
I will be very disappointed in China if they allow themselves to become stagnant like Japan.
Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:24 pm