Published September 17th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Waiting for China’s Rise
People are not that certain of China’s rise. Majorities or pluralities in only half of the countries surveyed “believe that China will — or already has — replaced the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower.” Sensibly, only minorities believe that the handover has already occurred — 4 to 17% think so, with no clear pattern emerging in countries with larger percentages within this range. Only 8% of Chinese believe that they are already on top.
People in developed countries –and thus likely higher education levels — are more likely to expect Chinese dominance.
Two exceptions set the stage for future clashes of expectations: only 26% of Americans foresee being replaced by China, with 57% doubting that this will ever happen, while 59% of Chinese expect to replace the US, and only 20% are skeptical that this will occur.
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kurt9 Says
I think China will eventually pass us up. But I don’t think it will be for a good three decades or so. Their economic growth has been impressive. However, it will still take them decades to catch up with the U.S. on a per capta basis. By then, their economy will be 4 times ours.
Their manufacturing quality is still poor, but is improving. They seem to be about where Japan was, say, in the late 60’s. They have yet to export cars to the U.S., for example. They are building 300mm semiconductor fabs there and many of the composite parts for Boeing’s 787 dreamliner will be made in China.
I think a successful China is good for the world. I’m into the “red queen” theory of competition. The more competition, the better, with regards to technological innovation and especially biotechnology and bio-medical technology (aging has yet to be cured and we still do not have space colonization). So, the greater the competition, the faster the rate of technological innovation and the sooner we get what we want.
Sep 18th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Future Atlas Says
Competition could be good, for the reasons you state, but it very much depends on the forms it takes. Given that both Chinese and Americans are proud and sometimes dismissive of others, it could be a delicate relationship — and China has a great deal to learn about how to be a great power.
Tech innovation could be great, though it could generate some sharp cultural or even security conflicts, as cultures make different choices about, say, human enhancement.
Sep 18th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
kurt9 Says
As long as the competition does not become militaristic, it is always good. Tech innovation is absolutely necessary for what I want. Given that I’m already in my 40’s (I’m actually the same age as Aubrey de Grey) I need the red queen as much as possible. For me personally, aging is the enemy on the horizon that seriously needs slaying. Fortunately, there are people working to develop the weapons to slay that enemy. The SENS conference was just last weekend.
I view the red queen of tech competition as the perfect means for ridding societies of luddite cultural elements.
Sep 19th, 2009 at 10:08 pm