Published September 16th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Linked Conflicts from the Caucasus to Central Asia
Writing in Foreign Policy, Paul Quinn-Judge outlines a scenario in which “the fighters of the Caucasus Emirate link up with their jihadi allies in Central Asia, turning much of the southern rim of the former Soviet Union into a zone of low-intensity warfare.”
He writes that “The absolute worst-case scenario — a gradual linking-up of insurgents in Central Asia with the North Caucasus’ young Islamist fighters — might be remote, but it is now possible. Such a link-up would require at least three factors.”
- “Russia’s policy of blind brutality in the North Caucasus would have to continue, ensuring a steady stream of recruits to the Islamist cause.”
- “The Taliban would have to consolidate along Afghanistan’s frontiers with Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, or Tajikistan, turning the borderlands into safe havens and creating a series of conduits allowing fighters to move from Afghanistan into Central Asia and beyond.”
- “Central Asian jihadists from countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, or Uzbekistan would have to emerge as a fighting force large enough to exert serious regional pressure.”
As to their likelihood, Quinn-Judge suggests that
- “The first is already happening.”
- “The second is a matter of time.”
- “The third cannot be ruled out.”
kurt9 Says
We were told in the early 90’s when the USSR unbundled that the Islamic jihadis were going to take over Central Asia. I expected this to happen. So far, it has not happened even though these countries have Muslim majorities in the 80% range. Unless the Russians get seriously out of control, I still think its unlikely. I’ve never been to the region, but my impression as that it is mostly Chinese money and influence that is growing in the region, not Russian.
Sep 18th, 2009 at 9:46 pm