Published July 17th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Turkey as a Great Power
In The Next 100 Years, George Friedman predicts the rise of Turkey to great power status. “It will likely soon reemerge in its old role, as the dominant force in the” Middle East, he writes (p. 81).
Yigal Schleifer of the Christian Science Monitor provides some clues as to how that scenario might develop in recent reporting.
- Turks are importing Arab brides to rural areas, with the aid of “Turkey’s growing clout and visibility in the Middle East.” A Turk says that Moroccan brides are willing to come east because they “think Turkey has prestige, that it’s a strong country. They also trust Turkey – they know it’s a Muslim country and that we pray and read the Koran.” Turkish TV is helping to bolster the Turkish image as well. (Schleifer points out the curiosity that in this case the Internet is reinforcing polygamy, which is illegal, and widely considered backward, in Turkey.)
- Turkish officials have spoken out strongly against perceived Chinese oppression of the Uighurs, who are a Turkic people. Prime Minister Erdogan went so far as to say that “The incidents in China are, simply put, tantamount to genocide.” This of course upset China, putting Turkey in the position of deciding between pan-Turkic emotional solidarity, and its realpolitik goals.
Schleifer writes that Turkey’s strong stand against Israel’s attack on Gaza helped its image with Arabs; this suggests that if Turkey really wants to be a regional leader, it may have to distance itself from Israel — unless Israel achieves peace with its neighbors.
(Image courtesy MichalFotos, Flickr)