Published July 15th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Australia’s Changing Strategic Environment
Australians are reexamining strategy as the world changes around them.
On National Public Radio this morning, a report suggested that Australia is considering its situation as the perceived balance between the US and China changes. Centuries of protection by the fleets of Britain and the United States may be coming to an end; an Australian analyst said he doubted that the US was likely to send two carrier groups to face down China over Taiwan by 2025 or 2030, as it did in 1995.
With that in mind, and with an eye on China, a new Defence White Paper published in May recommends that Australia increase its defense spending and double the size of its submarine fleet (from the current six).
At the same time, many Australians are worried about China’s rapidly growing economic influence in their country — in part based on the relationship many Chinese companies have with the Chinese government.
Meanwhile, looking east, Australians are also thinking about their role in the Indian Ocean. The Future Directions Institute has published a new study on the topic, Such a Full Sea: Australia’s Options in a Changing Indian Ocean Region, and its conclusions are summarized in the current issue of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy (”Such a Full Sea,” Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 4, 2009, pp. 8-10).
The study makes five principal recommendations, based in part of an assumption of waning American influence:
- Australia should lead the creation of an Indian Ocean forum, based in Perth.
- Australia should “engage more decisively in the region,” including leading the stabilization of the Horn of Africa.
- Australia “must take charge of the future of Antarctica,” as the Antarctic Treaty is fraying.
- Australia should “focus on ‘pre-emptive peacekeeping,’” meaning aid programs directed at agriculture.
- Australia should develop its Indian Ocean Territories as integral parts of the nation.
(Image courtesy JPL — NASA)