Published July 13th, 2009 by Future Atlas
Iraq: The Kurdish Faultline
Iraq may still destabilize, and one of the potential faultlines became clearer two weeks ago, when the Iraqi Kurdish parliament passed a new constitution for the region, in defiance of the central government and American pressure.
The New York Times writes that the action suggests the level of mistrust between Kurdistan and the central government, and “raises the question of whether a peaceful resolution of disputes between the two is possible.” A Sunni Arab member of parliament commented that “It is a declaration of hostile intent and confrontation. Of course it will lead to escalation.”
The constitution defines Kurdistan as including not only the established provinces, but also several disputed areas, setting the stage for more clashes. Conditions are already tense enough that Kurdish and federal security forces have had several standoffs.
The result of a failure to resolves these issues could be armed conflict between Arab Iraq and the Kurds (rather than the more general fragmentation that has been more likely in the past). Though the Kurds have been attempting to build separate ties to the US, the United States would likely stand aside in such a confrontation, even if it meant disaster for the Kurds, rather than throw away the American relationship with Iraq.
The constitution may also not bode well for future Kurdish governance, as it reportedly places few checks on the power of the president of Kurdistan, potentially enabling authoritarian tendencies in the dominant Kurdish parties.
(Image courtesy Wikimedia Commons)