Published January 3rd, 2009 by Future Atlas
US Disintegration?
Joel Garreau of the Washington Post reports on the Russian pundit Igor Panarin, who is forecasting that “the United States will break into six parts in June or July of 2010.”
He notes that
Panarin’s disintegration divination comes complete with a map. In it, Alaska goes to Russia. Hawaii goes to Japan or China. “The California Republic” — the West from Utah and Arizona to the Pacific — goes to China. “The Texas Republic” — the South from New Mexico to Florida — goes to Mexico. “Atlantic America” — the Northeast from Tennessee and South Carolina up to Maine — joins the European Union. And “The Central North-American Republic” — the Plains from Ohio to Montana — goes to Canada.
Garreau suggests that Russians may be happily projecting their own past experiences — or future worries — onto the US. And, in fact, Russia is more likely to lose parts than is the US.
Overall, the likelihood of secession in the US seems low. This is the FutureAtlas.com estimate:
And, as Garreau and others point out, Panarin’s divisions are oddly chosen. A more likely division might look something like this:
The most plausible fracture line is the “red-blue” one, as the largest font of true extremism in the US comes from the so-called “Christian right.” One can imagine a scenario in which the Republican Party or a Christan-right splinter of it can no longer win national elections, turns radical, and seeks a split, taking the South, the Great Plains, and the northern Rockies. (Or it might just involve the South, if the Republicans become a regional, Southern party.)
Overall, though, this is unlikely, as American national identity is strong, all parts of the country are somewhat ideologically mixed, and all but the most extreme evangelical Christians seem to understand the realities of living in pluralist, diverse America.
(Who knows what Alaska might do in this circumstance? It might stay in the US, join the red secession, or opt for independence. It would not revert to Russia however.)
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kurt9 Says
A much more probable disintegration scenario would have Canada and Mexico disintegrating as well. So, a proper map must include all of North America. My favorite scenario is where Canada breaks apart into two, maybe, three regions. Mexico breaks up into at least two parts. The U.S. breaks up into five parts. The “new” North America consists of 6 or 7 political entities that may or may not share a common market.
The old south, along with parts of the mid-west and the souther parts of, say, IL and IN becomes the CSA (Christian States of America). New England and the East Coast, along with the maritime provinces, form a more “European” (social democratic) state. The Northern midwest, rust belt and central provinces of Canada form another somewhat social democratic state, but more conservative than the East Coast republic. The South-west joins with Northern Mexico to become Republica del Norte, and the west coast (north of California) and mountain states join with the two western provinces of Canada and Alaska to form a more Pacific oriented nation. Southern Mexico would be separate from Northern Mexico because of its large native American population (not mestizo).
How’s that for a North America of 2050?
Feb 17th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Bogdan Migulski Says
How about a scenario more like the Spanish Civil war where the conflict is not about splitting up, but over who will win the entire country. There are so many enclaves everywhere that it is hard to think of this as just a regional war.
I could see a long stalemate where the liberals are afraid to leave the cities and the conservatives are happy to leave the cities alone and control most of the countryside.
Mar 11th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Future Atlas Says
A Spanish Civil War-type scenario is indeed a possibility — as seen in the futurist movie “The Handmaid’s Tale,” in which the fundamentalist forces are besieging Detroit and closing in on the Mormons. Would there be a “long stalemate” when both sides might have nuclear weapons?
Mar 21st, 2009 at 6:23 pm
DaveL Says
I could well see a break-up as follows: (1) CA,OR, Western WA combining with British Columbia. (2) The “Mormon” Rocky Mountain States seceding and joining into a confederation with AZ, UT, NV, WY, ID, Eastern WA, MT and Western ND joining with Alberta and Sask. (3) NM joining Northern Mexico. (4) TX and OK seceding, staying together and attracting some of the South central mid-west (5) The North central mid-west. (6) The Old Confederacy in the South., (7) New England (8) Alaska with the NW Territories.
As a resident of #2 above I believe it is closer than one might think. I would put it as a 30% probability. I see economic as well as political forces driving this.
May 18th, 2009 at 9:55 am