Archive for December, 2008

Published December 28th, 2008 by Future Atlas

Radicals gain in Somalia

Somali flagThe Washington Post reports on the gains of the Islamist rebels in Somalia — and on unintended (but not unanticipated) consequences:

The scenario now unfolding in Somalia is the one a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion nearly two years ago had been intended to thwart: a takeover by radical Islamists. At the time, Ethiopian forces ousted a relatively diverse Islamic movement that had briefly gained control of the capital, Mogadishu. . . . But the policy backfired, inspiring a relentless insurgency of clan militias and Islamist fighters that has left Somalia’s first central government since 1991 near collapse.

The result is that “the two-year insurgency has energized the most radical Islamist faction, the Shabab — ‘youth’ in Arabic — which the United States has designated a terrorist organization.
… Analysts predict the Shabab will extend its control after the Ethiopians withdraw” early in the year.

However, writes the International Crisis Group:

Opposition to the Ethiopian occupation has been the single issue on which the many elements of the fractious Islamist insurgency could agree. When that glue is removed, it is likely that infighting will increase, making it difficult for the insurgency to obtain complete military victory, or at least sustain it, and creating opportunities for political progress.

The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors –- including the U.S. and Ethiopia –- accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.

According to the ICG, “One way or the other, Somalia is likely to be dominated by Islamist forces.”

| Post in Africa, Somalia | 0 Comments

Published December 28th, 2008 by Future Atlas

The Taliban on the March

nullThe Taliban insurgency continues to hold the momentum in Afghanistan.

The AP reports that they are setting up shadow governmental structures within 30 miles of Kabul, increasingly replacing those of the official, Western-backed government.

US officials quotes in the article downplay this and ascribe Taliban success to intimidation, but a tribal elder in one province asserts that 90% of the population of the region support the insurgents.

To counter the Taliban, the US and the Afghan government are planning to arm local militias, in hopes of replicating some of the success of that strategy in Iraq.

But, the New York Times notes, “the plan is causing deep unease among many Afghans, who fear that Pashtun-dominated militias could get out of control, terrorize local populations and turn against the government.”

And a Taliban commander suggested to the Times “that the government militias would find it hard to put down roots in the area, if only because the Taliban had already done so. ‘We are living in the districts, in the villages — we are not living in the mountains. The people are with us.’”

The upshot is that the neglect of Afghanistan by the Bush administration may have set up Obama to be LBJ: firmly pledged to get deeper into a deteriorating situation.

| Post in Afghanistan, Asia | 0 Comments

Published December 21st, 2008 by Future Atlas

Pirates in a multipolar world

Pirate flag The Somali pirates have managed to invoke the multipolar 21st century:

  • The European Union is sending a force of 20 warships to patrol around the Horn of Africa, including countries such as Spain and Sweden, an unusual display of military power by the organization.
  • China is also sending three warships, a striking extension of its global reach. This is likely the first time a Chinese flotilla has operated in these waters since the great fleets of Admiral Zheng He, in the early 15th century.

Image: Ben Walther (Flickr)

| Post in Africa, Asia, China, Europe, International system, Security, Somalia | 0 Comments