Future Atlas

Published February 17th, 2008 by Future Atlas

Kosovo’s equivocal independence

Kosovo declared independence today.

As the International Crisis Group explains, Serbian rejection of the move will create ongoing complications:

Serbia plans to respond with legal challenges, by cold-shouldering Kosovo’s institutions on the ground and entrenching its own parallel local administrations, schools and healthcare in Serb areas, both in the north and in the scattered patchwork of enclaves south of the Ibar where the majority of the remaining Serbs live. Belgrade expects international security forces to shield them from Kosovo Albanian interference. . . . The stage will then be set for a multi-year contest for influence over Kosovo’s Serb areas, with the EU missions liaising and playing referee.

This raises two possibilities:

• future instability, either in the form of active opposition by Serbia or secessionist moves by the 10% Serbian minority in Kosovo
• gradual defusing of the issue by post-historical Europe; if the EU absorbs both places in time, the borders hardly matter

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