Archive for February, 2008

Published February 19th, 2008 by Future Atlas

One step closer to the future for Cuba

Map of Cuba With Castro formally removing himself from leadership, Cuba moved further into its next stage, whatever that might be.

Future Atlas outlined 6 possibilities in 2006. They remain operative, and the “Fidelismo without Fidel” scenario retains the highest medium-term probability.

Map courtesy Central Intelligence Agency

| Post in Cuba, Latin America | 0 Comments

Published February 17th, 2008 by Future Atlas

Kosovo’s equivocal independence

self-determination Kosovo declared independence today.

As the International Crisis Group explains, Serbian rejection of the move will create ongoing complications:

Serbia plans to respond with legal challenges, by cold-shouldering Kosovo’s institutions on the ground and entrenching its own parallel local administrations, schools and healthcare in Serb areas, both in the north and in the scattered patchwork of enclaves south of the Ibar where the majority of the remaining Serbs live. Belgrade expects international security forces to shield them from Kosovo Albanian interference. . . . The stage will then be set for a multi-year contest for influence over Kosovo’s Serb areas, with the EU missions liaising and playing referee.

This raises two possibilities:

  • future instability, either in the form of active opposition by Serbia or secessionist moves by the 10% Serbian minority in Kosovo
  • gradual defusing of the issue by post-historical Europe; if the EU absorbs both places in time, the borders hardly matter

| Post in Europe, Self-determination | 3 Comments

Published February 16th, 2008 by Future Atlas

Islamizing Egypt

Egyptian flagThe International Herald Tribune details the process of Islamization, using the case of Egypt.

In Egypt and other Arab lands, faced with frustrated hopes and poor economic prospects,

the young are turning to religion for solace and purpose, pulling their parents and their governments along with them. With 60 percent of the region’s population under the age of 25, this youthful religious fervor has enormous implications for the Middle East. More than ever, Islam has become the cornerstone of identity, replacing other, failed ideologies: Arabism, socialism, nationalism.

The article offers these implications:

  • “The focus on Islam is also further alienating young people from the West and aggravating political grievances already stoked by Western foreign policies.”
  • An Islamized populace has less distance to travel to reach Islamic radicalism.

Curiously, one of the drivers of social frustration in Arab countries is delayed marriage, due to high marriage costs, the article explains. In other words, given that these economies are not producing widespread wealth, the social system has developed a malfunction.

This trend has implications for stability:

  • States may find it harder to control populations that have been primed for political Islam.
  • Populations used to thinking in terms of Muslim solidarity may be more actively provoked by the current Israeli-Palestinian situation, and hostile to the impotent peace practiced by states such as Egypt and Jordan.
  • Political Islam, with its statist inclinations and hostility to aspects of scientific reasoning, could reinforce the economic malaise that many Middle Eastern countries tend to suffer.

| Post in Islam, Middle East, Values | 0 Comments