Future Atlas

Published January 30th, 2008 by Future Atlas

Peak oil by 2015?

The head of Royal Dutch Shell appears to be saying that peak oil — when demand for oil keeps rising while supply starts to fall — could come in only 7 years.

He reportedly wrote in an email that “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

The email also included two scenarios for the future of energy:

The first scenario, “Scramble”, envisages a mad dash by nations to secure resources. With policymakers viewing energy as “a zero-sum game,” use of domestic coal and biofuels accelerates. It is a world, said the Shell chief, where “policymakers pay little attention to energy consumption – until supplies run short.” The alternative scenario, “Blue-prints”, envisages a world of political cooperation between governments on efficiency standards and taxes, a convergence of policies on emissions trading and local initiatives to improve environmental performance of buildings.

Peak oil, or something close to it, would be a severe shock to the global economic and geopolitical system. It could drastically raise prices, including the price of food, and set off a desperate competition to secure energy supplies.

| Post in Energy |