Archive for December, 2007
New research suggests that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer decades before previous models have indicated.
A team of scientists now says this could come as early as 2013, based on patterns up to 2004. A possible harbinger: 2007’s summer ice cover was the smallest “in modern times.”
Other researchers push the date back, but some have begun to say “that 2030 is not an unreasonable date.”
Reduced or absent ice would speed up debates over Arctic resources, and make it more likely that Canada will face confrontations with rivals for oil and sea lanes.
(Via Arlington Institute; image: NASA)
As Future Atlas noted more than a year ago, Jacob Zuma presents challenges to the future of South Africa.
Accused of corruption and even rape in the past, he is now closer to power, having been elected head of the African National Congress (ANC), the only party currently able to win national elections.
New corruption charges may derail his rise; if convicted he would be ineligible to run for president of the country in 2009.
Zuma’s situation might produce at least two effects:
- If he is blocked, his followers could be tempted to amend or bend the rules, endangering the primacy of law.
- South African academic Sheila Meintjes told the VOA that the Zuma affair could presage a split within the ANC, between the business-middle class wing on one hand, and the more radical working class elements on the other. This would be a positive development, as it might break the single-party hold on elections.
The Washington Post recently detailed developments in synthetic life: microorganisms guided by completely artificial DNA.
While there are many upsides — artificial organisms might be able to produce cheap biofuels and high-tech chemicals — this technology also has potentially dire security implications.
A biotech watchdog organization, the ETC Group, put it this way:
Ultimately synthetic biology means cheaper and widely accessible tools to build bioweapons, virulent pathogens and artificial organisms that could pose grave threats to people and the planet.
Unlike nuclear weapons, this would not require a vast state-run program. Says the article,
the technology is quickly becoming so simple, experts say, that it will not be long before “bio hackers” working in garages will be downloading genetic programs and making them into novel life forms.
In other words, small groups and even individuals could create immensely dangerous pathogens. (See the movie “Twelve Monkeys” for one such scenario.)
Researchers say that fully artificial cells might be achieved within a year.
Image: NIH
A group of American Indian activists has declared independence from the US.
The small group, claiming to be acting on behalf of the Lakota, will claim parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.
This is more a political stunt than a serious movement: genuine separatism is rare among American Indians, and their populations are too small and dispersed to create viable independent entities.
Only the Navajo and Hopi are partial exceptions in the lower 48 states; native peoples of Alaska, with large swaths of territory and, in some cases, oil wealth, might also be more likely candidates for independence movements.
Overall, the probability of a successful Native American succession movement is very low for the foreseeable future.
Gareth Evans of the International Crisis Group put summarized the impact of Bhutto’s assassination succinctly: “Prospects for democracy and stability in Pakistan are much dimmer without her.”
As for future directions, new data from Pew offers mixed messages:
- Support for terrorism has plummeted, with only 9% of Pakistanis saying that suicide attacks against civilians are justified.
- On the other hand, while only 15% of Pakistanis have favorable views of the US, more than twice that have some or a lot of confidence in Osama bin Laden to “do the right thing” in world affairs. This is down from 51% in 2005, but still indicates latent potential support for extremist views, despite skepticism that Pakistan is headed in this direction.
Despite vigorous efforts to increase Venezuela’s “soft power,” Hugo Chavez does not appear to be succeeding, according to data released by Pew this week.
In 5 of 6 major Latin American nations, majorities have little or no confidence in Chavez as a leader. In Brazil and Peru, majorities have “no confidence at all” in him. Only in Argentina is opinion divided, with 40% of the population feeling somewhat positive about Chavez.
In short, the prospects for Chavez’s “Bolivaran Revolution” transforming the politics of Latin America remain poor.