Published November 30th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Pakistan: the variables
Last month The Atlantic examined Pakistan’s direction in light of ongoing political turmoil.
Author Joshua Hammer mentions the “nightmare scenario”–which Pakistan seems to inspire regularly:
an Islamic revolution in Pakistan. A tide of anti-American sentiment, some analysts fear, could bring to power Islamists, who would give free rein to the Taliban, spread nuclear technology to rogue states and terrorist groups, and support the mujahideen in Kashmir.
Hammer sheds light on various drivers of the scenario:
- The Islamist political parties simply aren’t very popular, even in their strongholds.
- Senior military officers are seen as pro-Western, but the views of the ranks who will succeed them in a few years are unknown.
- The Pakistani military is “deeply ambivalent” about fighting the Taliban, al Qaeda, and their Islamist Pakistani allies, not truly seeing them as a threat to the country.
- “While the military aims to do the opposite, it is slowly destabilizing Pakistan.”
Hammer also notes that the military has now deeply entrenched itself in the Pakistani economy, enriching its officers in the process, and this process may make it even less willing to truly relinquish power.
Hammer concludes that
The threat of an outright Islamist revolution—by gun or ballot—is low today, and so too is the threat that nuclear weapons could fall into the wrong hands. The army is not dominated by jihadists, and its controls on its missiles are strong.
However, he writes, “If the political process remains stunted, the Islamists may continue to gather strength until the country reaches a tipping point.”