Published October 7th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Mexico scenarios: narcostate
A recent report by the US Government Accountability Office suggests why devolution into a narcostate controlled by drug lords must be counted among the possible scenarios for Mexico’s future.
As reported in the Washington Post:
- Mexico is now the principal conduit for drugs into the US.
- Mexican drug cartels now “bring in as much as $23 billion a year in revenue.”
- “Mexican drug cartels generate more revenue than at least 40 percent of Fortune 500 companies, and the U.S. government’s highest estimate of cartel revenue tops that of Merck, Deere and Halliburton.”
- “A climate of ‘impunity’” enables the cartels to prosper.
- In some Mexican states cartels are so influential that the government rarely attempts counter-narcotics action there.
Still, the government is not pervasively compromised: it continues to extradite major traffickers to the US, and nearly a 1,000 federal law enforcement officers have been fired since 2000. Overall, the chance of a full-fledged takeover appears low.