Published September 30th, 2007 by Future Atlas
No Belgium, less Europe?
The Washington Post reported last week on the possible breakup of Belgium into Flanders and Wallonia.
The Flemings and Walloons have diverging outlooks on many issues, and are already substantially separated; the articles notes that “each side has its own autonomous parliament, political parties, schools, newspapers, television stations, celebrities, Boy Scouts and pigeon-racing clubs.”
In recent poll, 40% of Belgians said that Belgium will not exist in a decade.
In some respects, Europe now provides the ideal environment in which to pursue this kind of self-determination: the two parties could separate peacefully, and both new countries would then exist within the larger European Union. That is the most likely course if a division of Belgium proceeded.
The larger European project might not be well-served by such a path, however: every Flanders, Scotland, and Catalonia that appears within its borders adds to the drag on decision-making, and reduces the chance of Europe being a vigorous, decisive actor in the larger world. At some point, it might come to resemble the Holy Roman Empire more than the United States of Europe.
Stephen Aguilar-Millan Says
Hi Josh,
Three observations come to mind.
1. There is a third region in Belgium - metropolitan Brussels, that is now looking at a future as an independent region that is the capital of Europe. There isn’t much political support for that just yet, but it is in the mix.
2. When an EU country separates, both of the resultant nations have to negotiate entry into the EU. In the case of Belgium, both Flanders and Wollonia would have to negotiate entry into the EU at substantially detrimental terms than they presently enjoy. This may cause pause for thought.
3. When a new country joins the EU, it has to adopt the EU Constitution and the Euro. Not a problem in Belgium, but this is a major obstacle for Scotland pursuing that course of action.
With best wishes,
Stephen
Oct 6th, 2007 at 6:34 am
Future Atlas Says
Stephen — Thanks for the comment. I’ve heard of the Brussels issue. Perhaps you could elaborate on why Flanders and Wallonia would have to join the EU on “substantially” worse terms than they experience as part of Belgium.
Would adopting the EU constitution and the euro be obstacles for Scotland because they would not want to leave the UK only to accept other kinds of compromises to their independence?
Oct 7th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Robert Says
Perhaps the UK could do a swap; Europe gets Scotland and the UK get Belgium.
Dec 6th, 2007 at 7:54 am