Published August 31st, 2007 by Future Atlas
Coming instability in Uzbekistan
In a new report on the Central Asian country, the International Crisis Group offers these forecasts for Uzbekistan:
- “While 69-year-old President Islom Karimov shows no signs of relinquishing power, despite the end of his legal term of office more than half a year ago, his eventual departure may lead to a violent power struggle.”
- “Little can be done presently to influence Tashkent but it is important to … assist the country’s neighbours build their capacity to cope with the instability that is likely to develop when Karimov goes.”
- “There are reasons to be concerned that Karimov’s departure may lead to serious instability, with potentially grave consequences for the region as a whole.”
- “There is no clear evidence the [radical Islamist group] IMU poses a direct threat to it. However, if the regime continues its repressive policies, support for radicalism may well grow.”
- Regarding claims of an Islamic radical threat, “if the regime continues to crush internal dissent, eviscerate civil society, silence the independent media and smother religious institutions, the danger that they could become a self-fulfilling prophecy will grow.”