Published July 28th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Self-determination: odds on 6 new states
Foreign Policy offers the odds on six new states achieving independence:
1. Kosovo
Odds — “strong”: driven by US and EU support, it has a good shot at full independence from Serbia
2. South Sudan
Odds — “not great”: a 2011 “referendum will probably happen; and it will probably come out in favor of independence; and Khartoum will almost certainly find a way around the results.”
3. Somaliland
Odds — “very good”: effectively independent from Somalia since 1991, it already has its own government, army, and currency; international organizations will attend to the disastrous state of the rest of Somalia first, however
4. Iraqi Kurdistan
Odds — “fair”: Turkey’s strong opposition may be overruled by facts on the ground if Iraq disintegrates
5. Palestine
Odds — “good”: “details” in the way of a two-state solution will eventually overcome the objections of “the extreme radical wings” on both sides
6. Taiwan
Odds — “poor”: China is getting stronger and stronger, and Taiwan “will accept autonomous status” under China
Somiatrufes Says
Nice blog!
What about Catalonia, Scotland, Basque Country?… That is to say, what about West Europe?
Aug 25th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Future Atlas Says
Western Europe does indeed have some likely candidates for independence, partly because the EU provides a structure that could provide gentler kinds of separation — what would independence mean when people could still freely move across the border, still using the same currency?
Foreign Policy was likely picking out politically salient cases, rather than the places most likely to become independent.
Aug 26th, 2007 at 10:52 pm