Published June 17th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Experts: the future of Afghanistan’s Taliban
In this month’s Atlantic, 44 experts were polled about the trajectory of the extremist Taliban movement. Asked to evaluate the likelihood of the Taliban’s returning to power by 2012, they gave these responses:
- 45% — unlikely
- 27% — somewhat likely
- 18% — more and more likely
- 9% — nonexistent
Some specific forecasts by the experts:
- “The Taliban is likely to remain a force in the politics of Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, perhaps even establishing effective control over some parts of the country.”
- “The Taliban is riding back to power on the alienation of the Pashtuns. We risk collapse if we let [that] alienation get out of hand.”
- “NATO forces will need to remain for decades.”
(”Return of the Taliban,” June 2007, p. 38)