Published June 10th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Iraq if the US leaves: forecasts
Writing in the NYT, two supporters of the war, Peter W. Rodman and William Shawcross, offer these forecasts:
As in Indochina more than 30 years ago, millions of Iraqis today see the United States helping them defeat their murderous opponents as the only hope for their country. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have committed themselves to working with us and with their democratically elected government to enable their country to rejoin the world as a peaceful, moderate state that is a partner to its neighbors instead of a threat. If we accept defeat, these Iraqis will be at terrible risk. Thousands upon thousands of them will flee.
The new strategy of the coalition and the Iraqis, ably directed by Gen. David Petraeus, offers the best prospect of reversing the direction of events — provided that we show staying power.
American defeat in Iraq would embolden the extremists in the Muslim world, demoralize and perhaps destabilize many moderate friendly governments, and accelerate the radicalization of every conflict in the Middle East. Our conduct in Iraq is a crucial test of our credibility, especially with regard to the looming threat from revolutionary Iran.
Analysis
- Large numbers of Iraqis are already in danger, and millions have fled. Even more could be placed in danger if the US precipitously withdraws and fighting intensifies.
- The authors do not address the fact that by most accounts the “new strategy” is not working, and American “staying power” continues to drain away. That continuing a fight might be useful on some levels is not sufficient, if no plausible strategy or goal is in view.
- American defeat would indeed energize radicals. But the continued occupation of Iraq also has that effect, and could contribute to destabilization of governments in the region, as veterans of jihad return to their homelands.
- It should also be noted that these arguments were good reasons to have stayed out of Iraq in the first place: they are arguing for saving ourselves from the consequences of our own actions; prudent policymaking would have avoided these dangers entirely, and not placed American credibility in what is substantially a lose-lose position.