Published February 6th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Cuba evolving
Journalist Ann Louise Bardach spoke at the New America Foundation today about the situation in Cuba, touching on several drivers of Cuba’s future.
Of Cuba itself, she had this to say:
- The transition has begun: Castro is not coming back to power.
- She is “reasonably optimistic about Raul Castro.”
- A “quiet dissident” told her that “Raul wants openings;” the dissident is also optimistic about change.
- “Cubans want change desperately,” including improved quality of life and free markets.
- They also want stability rather than revolution or violence, and they wish to retain their homes, medical care, and literacy.
Of Cuban-Americans and US policy, she said:
- Bush administration policy is being shaped only by the extreme wing of the exile community, in the guise of the Cuba Liberty Council.
- Ros-Lehtinen and Diaz-Balart have a policy of “vengeance” and will not be satisfied by anything short of Castro being “hung by his heels” Mussolini-style.
- Overall, however, the hard-line position is eroding among Cuban-Americans, and huge numbers want reconciliation rather than bloodshed. Sixty percent favor a change in the US embargo policy.
- The US has placed itself out of play in Cuba’s evolution, and others may be in a position to fill the vacuum. Her friends are seeing huge numbers of Chinese on the island.
- If the US invasion of Iraq had been successful, it might have been followed up by a US invasion of Cuba.
Steve Clemons of New America added that more Republican legislators are loosening up on the Cuba issue.
Overall, Bardach’s views suggest the plausibility of the China Option scenario for Cuba’s future.