Published January 17th, 2007 by Future Atlas
Driver: the Sunni-Shiite rift
The NYT reports on an important potential driver of Middle East futures: the probably- widening divide between Sunnis and Shiites, propelled by events in Lebanon and Iraq.
Says one Egyptian expert, “The reality of the current situation is that we are approaching an open Sunni-Shiite conflict in the region. And Egypt will also be a part of it as a part of the Sunni axis.”
Egypt and other Sunni-led states such as Saudi Arabia are said to see this divide as a means to counter Iran, which has benefitted from the US invasion of Iraq and the Israeli war in Lebanon last year.
Overall, this suggests that disunity in the Mideast may be more likely than some kind of united neo-caliphate.