The US has indicated it will kill or capture Iranian operatives in Iraq.
The policy has at least two aims:
Several potential downsides to the policy are apparent:
- The policy appears to cross a line that Iran itself has stayed behind: direct targeting of each other’s operatives. US intelligence officials say that there is no evidence that Iran has done so in Iraq. Once the US crosses that line, Iran will feel justified in following suit.
- The US is much more vulnerable in Iraq than is Iran. The list of American targets is vast, and they could be struck from a variety of covert directions.
- Iran has more at stake in Iraq than does the US, and is unlikely to back away due to small retaliations.
- This may not further American aims in Iraq, and may not even be intended to do so. A senior intelligence officer says, “This has little to do with Iraq. It’s all about pushing Iran’s buttons. It is purely political.”
A new poll illustrates the challenge of reconciling the Taiwanese and Chinese views of the island.
Three-fourths of Taiwanese (76.1%) say that Taiwan’s sovereignty belongs solely to the people of the island, while only 15% essentially agree with China’s position that sovereignty is held by both Taiwan and the mainland.
Given that China explicitly rejects Taiwan’s right to self-determination, the continuing threat of future conflict is plain.
The NYT reports on an important potential driver of Middle East futures: the probably- widening divide between Sunnis and Shiites, propelled by events in Lebanon and Iraq.
Says one Egyptian expert, “The reality of the current situation is that we are approaching an open Sunni-Shiite conflict in the region. And Egypt will also be a part of it as a part of the Sunni axis.”
Egypt and other Sunni-led states such as Saudi Arabia are said to see this divide as a means to counter Iran, which has benefitted from the US invasion of Iraq and the Israeli war in Lebanon last year.
Overall, this suggests that disunity in the Mideast may be more likely than some kind of united neo-caliphate.
The National Arbor Day Foundation has produced a series of maps that shows how climate zones are on the move due to warming. About half the US has undergone a full “hardiness zone” change, meaning that plants are dealing with significant change in their environment.
Rapid climate change has the potential to outrun the ability of ecosystems to shift and plants to adapt, potentially causing large-scale disruption and even extinction.
(Via Social Technologies)
The CSM reviews some of the ways North Korea is as much a fundamentalist theocracy as a communist dictatorship.
Spending on deification of the Kim family is increasing, to counter the scenario that “Koreans will discover the freedoms, glitter, and diversity of the modern outside world, and stop believing the story of idolatry they are awash in.”
Says North Korean expert Brian Myers in the article, “It isn’t quite realized [in the West] how much a threat the penetration of ideas means. They [Kim's regime] see it as a social problem that could bring down the state.”
That danger may be increasing, as North Koreans are being exposed to a growing flow of “CDs and videos, South Korean radio, and cellphone signals from China, new styles and products, and new commercial habits.”
That would seem to hasten the day when North Koreans realize that they are not in fact being ruled by the “Guardian Deity of the Planet”and seek a change. In the wake of such a change, not only massive aid but some kind of cult deprogramming may be required.