Published October 10th, 2006 by Future Atlas
Countering North Korea?
Conservative commentator David Frum argues that the apparent nuclear weapon test attempt by North Korea demands that the US seek three goals:
- “enhance the security of those American allies most directly threatened by North Korean nuclear weapons: Japan and South Korea”
- “exact a price from North Korea for its nuclear program severe enough to frighten Iran and any other rogue regimes considering following the North Korean path”
- “punish China”
To achieve this, he advocates four policy initiatives:
- Speed up the development of missile defense systems.
- “End humanitarian aid to North Korea and pressure South Korea to do the same.”
- “Invite Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore to join NATO — and even invite Taiwan to send observers to NATO meetings.”
- “Encourage Japan to renounce the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and create its own nuclear deterrent.”
Analysis
Both the goals and the policies are internally contradictory. Policies 1, 3, and 4 seem more designed to alienate China than to punish North Korea. Given that China is in unprecedented agreement with other powers on North Korea, this is likely more based on hostility toward China than the issue at hand.
If China is alienated, goal 2 — punishing North Korea — becomes much more difficult, and policy 2 loses much of its meaning.
The North Korean problem is likely to find resolution, one way or another, but a hostile China might define the 21st century.
Missile defense systems might have some utility, but also threaten China’s deterrent — which Frum sees as a benefit — and could spark an arms race and a less stable US-Chinese relationship.
If a primary goal is enhancing South Korean security, it is unclear why the US should have to pressure the South Koreans to follow its policies. As the most directly affected state, South Korea should have considerable say in what happens next.
An Asian expansion of NATO is interesting, but might be more likely to dilute the meaning the alliance than strengthen Asian security. European allies would be foolish to interpose themselves between China and Taiwan when the US was provoking China, as it would be with these policies.
As for encouraging Japan going nuclear, this might only add to instability, given general East Asian distrust of the Japanese.