Comments on: The future of Cuba: six scenarios http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/ The geography of the future Wed, 18 Jan 2012 20:49:01 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Future Atlas» Blog Archive » Cuba Evolving http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-144669 Future Atlas» Blog Archive » Cuba Evolving Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:19:53 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-144669 [...] Journalist Ann Louise Bardach spoke at the New America Foundation today about the situation in Cuba, touching on several drivers of Cuba’s future. [...] [...] Journalist Ann Louise Bardach spoke at the New America Foundation today about the situation in Cuba, touching on several drivers of Cuba’s future. [...]

]]> By: Future Atlas http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-993 Future Atlas Tue, 21 Nov 2006 03:31:24 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-993 It is not clear that the US-Cuban relationship will be very close. After an initial burst of sympathy after a transition, Cuba may be seen as just another Latin American country. Americans may have short memories, and may also be disappointed by the complexities of a post-Castro Cuba. It is not clear that the US-Cuban relationship will be very close. After an initial burst of sympathy after a transition, Cuba may be seen as just another Latin American country. Americans may have short memories, and may also be disappointed by the complexities of a post-Castro Cuba.

]]> By: Insight http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-831 Insight Mon, 06 Nov 2006 04:02:53 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-831 What if the US were to purchase Cuba and make it our 51st state? Give every person in Cuba a real shot at a life. What if the US were to purchase Cuba and make it our 51st state? Give every person in Cuba a real shot at a life.

]]> By: Conductor http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-338 Conductor Wed, 02 Aug 2006 14:55:57 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-338 I would say the probability of a neo-Batista regime is "beyond remote". My in depth study of Cuba leads me to believe that after this interim system of government in Cuba, that Cuba will return in many ways to the way it was before castro: A progressive first world country with a thriving tourist industry and a very close ally of the U.S. Note that I say progressive because it was. Even under Batista Cuba had an advanced public health system and in 50 short years after independence from Spain (when literacy was below 30%) Cuba had literacy rates as good or better than most Latin American countries. The anti-americanism that fidel spouts is of his own creation. The Cuban people have always had an affinity for Americans. Cuba's biggest challenge will be re-building the crumbled infrastructure. The U.S. and exiles can certainly help with that. I would say the probability of a neo-Batista regime is “beyond remote”. My in depth study of Cuba leads me to believe that after this interim system of government in Cuba, that Cuba will return in many ways to the way it was before castro: A progressive first world country with a thriving tourist industry and a very close ally of the U.S. Note that I say progressive because it was. Even under Batista Cuba had an advanced public health system and in 50 short years after independence from Spain (when literacy was below 30%) Cuba had literacy rates as good or better than most Latin American countries. The anti-americanism that fidel spouts is of his own creation. The Cuban people have always had an affinity for Americans.

Cuba’s biggest challenge will be re-building the crumbled infrastructure. The U.S. and exiles can certainly help with that.

]]> By: Future Atlas http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-337 Future Atlas Wed, 02 Aug 2006 11:41:02 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-337 A scenario set should lay out all possibilities, and there are paths that lead here. But note that I judge it to have a very low probability, and state that most Cuban-Americans would favor democracy. That there are nonetheless extremist elements in the community, some of them in leadership positions, is regularly reaffirmed by the news. (And thanks for spotting the typo.) A scenario set should lay out all possibilities, and there are paths that lead here. But note that I judge it to have a very low probability, and state that most Cuban-Americans would favor democracy. That there are nonetheless extremist elements in the community, some of them in leadership positions, is regularly reaffirmed by the news.

(And thanks for spotting the typo.)

]]> By: Conductor http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/comment-page-1/#comment-336 Conductor Wed, 02 Aug 2006 03:04:52 +0000 http://www.futureatlas.com/blog/index.php/2006/08/01/the-future-of-cuba-six-scenarios/#comment-336 You misspelled Batista (one T) and I really have to take issue with a "Batista" scenario and you're characterization of the Cuban exiles as the ones that would bring this scenario about. With that scenario you lose credibility because you start with a false premise. The castro regime has done a good job (obviously) of painting all of the Cuban exile community as Batista supporters when that's plainly false. The biggest exile critics of castro today were not only supporters of the revolution but fought side by side with fidel to remove batista. Not only that, a vast proportion of the exile population has come to the US since 1980, many of them born after Castro took power. The more recent the arrival, the more likely he/she is to go back to try rebuild their lives. The older generation, many of which are in their 60s and 70s will not go back in large numbers (except to visit) and they will not command any legitimacy in the political future of Cuba. You misspelled Batista (one T) and I really have to take issue with a “Batista” scenario and you’re characterization of the Cuban exiles as the ones that would bring this scenario about. With that scenario you lose credibility because you start with a false premise. The castro regime has done a good job (obviously) of painting all of the Cuban exile community as Batista supporters when that’s plainly false. The biggest exile critics of castro today were not only supporters of the revolution but fought side by side with fidel to remove batista. Not only that, a vast proportion of the exile population has come to the US since 1980, many of them born after Castro took power. The more recent the arrival, the more likely he/she is to go back to try rebuild their lives. The older generation, many of which are in their 60s and 70s will not go back in large numbers (except to visit) and they will not command any legitimacy in the political future of Cuba.

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