Published July 1st, 2006 by Future Atlas
Cuba: a transition scenario
Cuban dissident Oswaldo Jose Paya Sardinas offers a “program for change” whose elements outline a scenario for a moderate transition to a democratic Cuba:
We want to preserve the right to free health care and education, and to expand our rights to include freedom of religious education and freedom of expression. We do not want change if it comes at the cost of paying a ransom to those in power, allowing them to take control of the country’s resources, to define its values, to become millionaires and to leave the people of the country in distress. In Cuba, there will be no lynchings, no revenge, no exclusions. Those now in power will have the same rights as all citizens. There will be no uncontrolled privatizations, but there will be a guarantee for the right of all Cubans to a free economy, the right to have private enterprise and to trade freely. No one will be forced out of his home; the law will prohibit evictions. All Cubans in exile will regain their rights as Cuban citizens.
The plan is clearly an effort to preserve aspects of Cuban society that many Cubans value, and avoid the jarring transitions that many post-communist countries have gone through. It attempts to defy the reality that those in power in any society will attempt to continue in power, even if in a new guise, and also seeks to forestall a vindictive backlash, which may make such a plan unpopular with Cuban-Americans, whose leadership is still prone to extremism.