Published June 16th, 2006 by Future Atlas
Somalia: four scenarios
After 15 years without a central government, Somalia is showing signs of movement. It is not clear where it is going, however.
Two new forces are at work: a weak internationally-supported transitional government has been formed, and last week Islamic militias seized the capital, driving out warlords apparently backed by the US.
Several possible scenarios could arise:
1. Continued chaos
No group predominates, and the Islamic militias and new government simply become additional factions in the mix.
Behind this scenario is something basic to the Somali character. As an International Crisis Group analyst put it in the WP, “The Somali allegiance to any authority is as fickle as it gets. This is very tricky terrain.”
2. Taliban on the Horn
The Islamic militias could seize control, and institute Islamic totalitarianism. They also prove willing to harbor al-Qaeda members, offering a rare sanctuary for the group.
There are signs that this is becoming more plausible:
Moderates among the supporters of the Islamic militias acknowledge a rising extremism within the country. More women than before cover their faces rather than just their hair. Strict Islamic justice is popular. City leaders warn that without massive and rapid rebuilding, anti-Western forces such as al-Qaeda are certain to grow in their appeal.
There also was a palpable unease about the plans of the Islamic militias, which are by all accounts a fractured group split between moderates and extremists. The militias, the residents said, attempted to shut down a company that dubbed Indian movies into Somali, apparently because they were regarded as too risque.
It may be this scenario that caused the US to support the Islamists’ warlord enemies, possibly making future hostility more likely.
3. Islamic peace
Islamic forces could take over the country and prove relatively competent administrators, avoiding Taliban-like excesses.
Ignoring the transitional government has dangers, however as it
is supported by Somalia’s neighbors, the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, so opposing it could mean regional and international isolation and possibly crippling sanctions for any administration the Islamic forces try to build.
4. A peace of unity
The transitional government, the Islamic militias, and others could find sufficient common ground to form a real national government — leaving aside, for the moment, the quasi-independent regions of Puntland and Somaliland in the north.
This is currrently the stated intention of the militias.