Published June 12th, 2006 by Future Atlas
Iran: doubting a US attack
Writing in Prospect Online, Philip Gordon of Brookings is skeptical that an American attack on Iran is likely.
His argument hinges on a clear difference he sees between the Iran and Iraq situations:
In the case of Iraq, as was already clear at the time, many influential Americans were certain that an invasion would be easy, successful, and a step toward a safer world, and thus actually preferred the use of force to a diplomatic “success.” On Iran, I know of almost no one who denies that an attack would have serious negative consequences and who sees it as anything other than a last resort.
He suggests that President Bush would receive advice that would deter him from military action from all quarters; this is worth reproducing at length:
From the CIA: “Mr President, we cannot tell you with certainty how far along the Iranians are towards a bomb, nor can we tell you where all the key nuclear facilities are. We know they convert uranium ore to nuclear fuel at Esfahan, that they enrich uranium at Natanz and that they are building a heavy-water research reactor at Arak. But there may well be dozens of other secret facilities scattered around the country we don’t know about. We don’t have good sources in Iran, and we didn’t even know about these sites until Iranian dissidents told us about them in 2002. Our best estimate, in any case, is that Iran will not be able to produce a bomb for at least five years.”
From the military: “Mr President, we can certainly do serious damage to Iran’s known nuclear facilities. The above-ground targets are easy to hit, and even the buried centrifuge facilities at Natanz—reportedly about 30 feet underground and covered by at least 10 feet of concrete—can probably be destroyed with our GBU-28 “bunker-busters.” But we might have to strike it many times—or possibly even consider using tactical nuclear weapons—to be certain. Moreover, to do this job right, we’d need to hit dozens of different facilities scattered around the country, many of which are in built-up civilian areas and/or protected by air-defence sites that would have to be destroyed. So there would be considerable collateral damage.”
From the state department: “Mr President, we would have almost no international support for an attack on Iran and our image throughout the world—especially the Muslim world—would be seriously damaged. But the real problem would be Iran’s potential retaliation. This would almost certainly include efforts to destabilise Iraq and Afghanistan (including attacks on our 150,000 troops in those two places), support for terrorist attacks against US citizens and interests and threats to the free passage of oil through the straits of Hormuz. We must also recognise that an attack would likely strengthen Iranian extremists and undermine reformers, that any setback to the program would likely only be temporary, and that any debate within Iran about the utility of a nuclear weapons programme would end.
From domestic political advisers: “Mr President, unlike three years ago on Iraq, we would not have widespread public support, and there is almost no chance that we could get a congressional resolution supporting the use of force. So you—and the Republican party—would have to accept full political responsibility for what comes next. And by the way, oil would probably shoot up to over $100 per barrel.”
He ends with a warning:
If [...] America’s allies decide that even economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation are too much to ask for in the effort to bring Iran back to the table, then Bush’s options will in effect be reduced to a very clear choice between doing nothing and bombing Iran. I still don’t think he’d want to do the latter, but America’s allies and counterparts on the Security Council ought at least to realise that refusing to support sanctions on Iran would be the best way to find out.