Published June 2nd, 2006 by Future Atlas
Montenegrin independence
The International Crisis Group reports some good news from the Balkans about the successful Montenegrin referendum on separation from Serbia and thus independence:
Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can aspire to becoming a “boring” country moving toward integration with Europe.
The ICG has certain caveats:
But its opposition, and Belgrade, need to be persuaded not to renege on their commitments to the EU to accept the referendum result, lest this generate new uncertainties in the region as a Kosovo status decision approaches.
The upsetting results for the Serbs might create problems in neighboring Bosnia as well:
Some in nationalist circles in Serbia, along with Republika Srpska Premier Milorad Dodik, are indulging in loose talk about holding a similar referendum in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska as compensation for the loss of Kosovo, and – as with the opposition in Montenegro – it remains to be seen whether this is more than election year rhetoric.
Generally, though, the effects should be positive:
In the broader region, Montenegrin independence will probably lead to the rapid resolution of a fifteen-year old territorial dispute between Croatia and Serbia (Prevlaka peninsula), and increased regional cooperation with Croatia, Albania, Slovenia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia. Montenegrin independence makes it more difficult for the international community to deny Albanians a similar outcome in Kosovo.